Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-18-2018 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-18-2018 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
The pair had treated the 1.2395-1.2412 resistance area as expected and the price action had slumped more than 60 pips. However, the buyers had managed to resume around the 4h chart 20 EMA zone, which was backed by the 1.2340 support. Currently, we see the price action edging higher again, erasing more than half of the losses. This could signal the bullish trend will continue upwards, but keep an eye on the calendar, as well.
If the bulls will continue to push the price action further, 1.2395-1.2412 area is expected to act as a resistance again. Only a break above it could signal further gains will follow towards the 1.2445 level.
On the downside, support is expected around the 20 EMA and 1.2340 support. We should see a change in the price relationship with the EMA to be able to say the bias changed.
- From the EU, important CPI figures are due to being released at 09:00 am GMT.
Dollar-swiss had continued to edge higher and managed to reach the top line of our channel. Also, it had breached above it and little selling interest can be seen thus far. At the present time, a continuation outside of the channel is very likely, considering the low appetite from the sellers. Only a new break back inside the channel will mean there could be potential for a retracement lower.
If the price action will continue to edge higher, 0.9698 and 0.9734 are the most significant resistance levels. However, we must admit that buying at those high levels is quite risky.
On the other hand, a wave of selling which will drive the price action back inside the channel could signal a deeper retracement. The 20 EMA and the 0.9630 are two of the most significant support levels.
Cable edged higher in the first part of Tuesday and managed to briefly break above the previous 2018 high. That level is 1.4344 and we can see on the 1h chart a false break formation around it. The buyers were unable to hold the gains and also, the relationship with the EMA had changed. Looking ahead, even though some upside spikes might be seen, we expect the price to weaken further.
Some short-term support had emerged around the 1.4295 level, but gains had been weak. The EMA seems to act as a resistance and if a new wave of selling will start, 1.4269 and 1.4231 will follow as support.
On the upside, the price action will need to break above the 20 EMA to be able to test the 1.4344 level again. Selling activity could intensify there and upside potential is reduced, from our point of view.
- From the UK, PPI, CPI and Retail Price Index figures are due at 08:30 am GMT.
We’ve talked in our yesterday daily forecast about an ascending trend line you can see now again. Even though the price action had managed to breach little below it, the buyers are back in business and pushing the price higher. We are currently above the trend line and some further gains are being expected. We expect to see if the buyers will manage to maintain the same level of persistence.
Resistance is expected around the 107.45 level, as it is a nice swing point. Only a break above will put pressure then on last week high. 107.65 is another resistance sellers might be watching to get short.
On the downside, sellers should drive the price action below the trend line and 20 EMA. If that will happen, 107.02 and 106.67 are expected to follow as support levels.
The Aussie had continued to consolidate around the 4h chart 20 EMA area. The order flow had been balanced, neither sides managing to push the price is one direction or another. However, that should change, since the consolidation had taken place for more than 2 days. The buyers are the ones favored since for the past week they have been in control. We should not forget that a break lower is also possible.
At the present time, the price action is located around the EMA and we expect it to surge on the upside. 0.7778 and 0.7802 are expected to act as resistance levels above the current price level.
On the other hand, if the sellers will be able to push the price action below the EMA, 0.7738 and 0.7719 are the next support levels.