Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-19-2018 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-19-2018 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
The pair had quite a choppy activity for the last 24 hours, but still, the 20 EMA had been a strong support. The price action is located above it, which means there is room for more upside gains in the near term. Judging by how the buyers are behaving, we expect a new leg on the upside to unveil in the following hours. Only a break below the 20 EMA will revive more selling interest.
If the price action will continue higher, resistance is expected around 1.2395 level. Above it, 1.2412 will follow, and we’ve talked about it yesterday. A break above 1.2412 will be hard to achieve, but if it happens buyers may advance higher.
On the other hand, support is expected around the 1.2371 level and 20 EMA. Buyers are buying the dip, which encourages us to the bias is still on the upside.
- From the EU, only Current Account numbers are due at 08:00 am GMT.
- From the US, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims will follow at 00:30 pm GMT.
Dollar-swiss had continued to trade outside the channel, as we have anticipated yesterday. However, the price action seems to be slowing down, even though the top line of the channel had been tested and treated as support. Our take is that the price will resume the downside and enter again inside the channel. It will be interesting to watch, though, how the buyers will react.
Resistance had emerged around the 0.9698 level and the market had not reached that level again. A break above it will open more room towards 0.9716 and 0.9734.
On the other hand, if the selling will resume strongly, the top line of the channel + 0.9665 are expected to act as a support area. By breaking inside the channel, the sellers will have a higher advantage.
Cable had been heavily under pressure yesterday, as the inflation figures from the UK continued to drop. The YOY CPI is now at 2.5% and the prospects of further rate hikes from the BOE are diminishing. Investors had been dumping sterling due to the fact for the last 24 hours and that generated the move we see on the chart. Such a strong break below the 20 EMA is expected to be followed by more downside gains.
Support had emerged around the 1.4180, but almost all the gains had been erased. The level could be shortly under pressure again. A break below it will open more room towards 1.4173 and 1.4100 area.
On the upside, sellers had been reacting to the 1.4231 level. The 20 EMA is also close to that level, so little upside potential for buyers.
- From the UK, Retail Sales figures are due at 08:30 am GMT.
We’ve mentioned yesterday that the price could advance further and find resistance around the 107.45 level. That is exactly what happened and sellers are now active at that point. It will be interesting to watch whether they could break above the key swing point. The last week high will definitely be under pressure then. However, if a break below the 20 EMA will materialize, sellers will be the ones in the driving seat.
For now, 107.45 is the main resistance. Above it, 107.55 and then the last week high, located at 107.77 will follow and sellers might be parked there.
On the downside, we should see first a stronger reaction from the sell side, which might drive the price action towards the EMA. If that will happen, 107.00 and 106.67 could be potential next targets.
Last time we’ve talked about the potential for more upside gains when it comes to Aussie. As you can see from the chart, following that consolidation, the price really started to jump. At the time of writing, the potential for reaching the top line of the channel is high. It is just a matter of when. The buyers are the ones heavily in control right now, so there is no reason to think for selling.
The price action is little above the 0.7802 resistance level and it is currently pressuring last week high. A breach above it will mean the top line of the channel will be next. Breaking above will mean 0.7845 will follow.
On the other hand, a consolidation towards the EMA is not excluded. 0.7778 is also a key support located little above the EMA which could trigger some buying orders.