Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-20-2018 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-20-2018 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
The pair had reversed to the downside yesterday after selling resumed impulsively around the 1.2396 resistance. We’ve mentioned that level in our yesterday daily forecast and we expected to have a significant impact. Currently, the price is below the 20 EMA, which is not a good sign for buyers. If they won’t be able to drive it back, further weakness is expected in the near-term.
The downside had been capped by 1.2335 and the sellers were not able to break below it in the Asian session. If it will take place in the next few hours, 1.2313 and 1.2290 support levels will follow.
On the upside, we expect resistance around the 20 EMA + 1.2358. Only if the buyers will manage to break above we could see further gains towards 1.2378 or again 1.2396.
- From Germany, PPI figures are due at 06:00 am GMT. From the EU, Consumer Confidence for April is due at 02:00 pm.
The sellers were unable to break back inside the channel and the buyers had treated the top line as support again, yesterday. Following that, we can see the bullish appetite resumed and drove the price towards new highs. However, even if the move will continue higher, caution is advised, since it approaching a strong resistance area. The prospects of price returning into the channel are low, but not impossible.
In late Thursday, the price action found short-term resistance at 0.9716. We already have the buyers pressuring yesterday high, so a break looks inevitable. Above it, 0.9734 and 0.9747 should react together as a strong resistance area.
If sellers resume, support is expected around 0.9698 and the EMA. Sellers will have a hard time breaking below the 20 EMA and the top line of the channel, but if they succeed, further weakness will definitely follow.
Cable had continued to weaken at an impulsive pace yesterday, after treating the 4h chart 20 EMA as resistance. Since the beginning of the week, the pair is down almost 300 pips and buyers still are unable to react. No significant bullish candle can be seen following yesterday drop, which means the prospects for further weakness are high. The bias is heavily tilted towards the sell side and it should stay there.
At the time of writing, the price is near the yesterday low, located at 1.4070 and it looks like a break is near. If the sellers will continue to drive the price action lower, 1.4020 is the next significant support.
On the other hand, if the price starts to pick up, resistance is expected at 1.4099. Even if the buyers break on the upside, sellers will be tempted to sell on rallies, so being long for now is not a good idea.
Even though some short-term weakness had been seen around the 107.45 level, buyers were able to cap the downside. The break on the upside took place during the Asian session and now the price is near the last week high. The breakout looks likely since the price had been trading higher for a few weeks. Since it is the last day of the week, profit-taking might take place, so buying at high point is not a good idea.
Resistance is located around 107.65-107.77 and if the buyers will manage to break on the upside, the next potential target will be 108.10 level.
On the downside, if the price consolidates lower, 107.45 and the 20 EMA are the next support levels to watch. A break below the 20 EMA will be an important achievement for sellers, but buyers are expected to prevent it.
The Aussie had resumed the downside impulsively yesterday, following an impulsive bullish candle. We were talking about a break above the weekly high, but it seems like the sellers had been too powerful. The price did break below the 20 EMA impulsively and we are down 100 pips from the highs. Now, six consecutive selling candles in a row show that the order flow is heavily biased towards the sell side.
For now, the price is around the 0.7710 support, but we do not have expectations to hold. We suspect the downside move will advance towards 0.7680 area, where stronger buyers are expected.
On the upside, resistance is expected at 0.7740. We should see the price action remaining below the 20 EMA at the end of this week.