Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-25-2018 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-25-2018 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
We’ve mentioned yesterday the 1.2184 support level and the market had reacted to it as expected. The price action had been able to rebound short-term and breached above the 1.2216 level. However, the buyers were unable to sustain the buying and the price is been declining for the last 12 hours. At the time of writing, it is back around the 1.2216 level and we suspect it can go lower.
If the 1.2216 support won’t generate enough buying power, we expect the 1.2184 support to follow again. The overall price action context suggests that the sellers are still in control and they might advance further.
On the other hand, even if the bulls resume, we expect again resistance around the 1.2240 level. The 20 EMA is little above so the prospects of an impulsive break higher are reduced thus far.
- From the US, Mortgage Applications is due to being released at 11:00 am. The calendar is very thin today.
Dollar-swiss continued to advance higher and even though the sellers had resumed around 0.9803 resistance, the buyers are again pushing the price higher. There is still no touch of the 20 EMA, so we are increasingly concerned that will happen, probably today. At the time of writing, the price is at yesterday high and a break seems inevitable. Beware of false breaks at those high levels.
If the buyers will break and continue to push the price higher, the next resistance level to watch is located around the 0.9830-0.9850 area.
On the other hand, if sellers manage to resume again, we could see a new push lower towards yesterday low and that will also mean the EMA will be touched. Also, 0.9774 and 0.9747 are expected to act as support levels.
- From Switzerland, Zew Survey – Expectations is due at 08:00 am GMT.
After forming a double bottom on a smaller time frame, Cable had been able to erase some of the losses. However, the move on the upside pales in comparison with the selling impulsive move prior to it. We already see sellers emerging and yesterday low could be under pressure again. The US dollar is expected to advance further and there is pressure on sterling, which can amplify the move.
Looking at the 30 min. chart we can see the sellers had driven the price below the 20 EMA. If the price will continue lower, 1.3952 and yesterday low will follow as support zones. A break below them will only confirm again the bearishness of the pair.
On the upside, buyers had encountered resistance around the 1.3992 level. If they will manage to drive the price above it, 1.4023 is the next significant level to watch.
Even though a bearish engulfing bar can be seen on the 4h chart, the pair is still poised for more gains. The buyers are pushing the price towards yesterday high and that confirms the interest is consistent. We expect the trend to extend further, as the US Treasuries have reached 3% and the stock market is retreating lower. Investors are cashing out, meaning they are buying US dollars.
The next short-term resistance is located around yesterday high. However, judging by the current price structure, a breakout above it might happen. If yes, 109.35 and 109.70 are the next resistance levels to watch above it.
On the downside, if the sellers resume our take is that the price action will manage to reach the 20 EMA and 108.44 support. An accumulation of buyers could take place there and a new leg up might form.
The Aussie had been under pressure for the last 24 hours and right now is below the channel. The yesterday low had also been breached, and that is not a good sign for buyers. Only if the buyers will manage to drive the price action inside the channel, we might see a retracement higher. Until then, the bias remains towards the sell side and more downside gains could be seen later today.
The support area located around the yesterday low had been breached, but the price is not too far from it. If the downside will extend, 0.7555 and 0.7535 are the next support levels to watch.
On the other hand, if the buyers resume, we might see a new rebound inside the channel and towards the 0.7618 resistance. That is where the selling started yesterday.