Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-26-2018 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-26-2018 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
As mentioned in our last daily forex forecast, the euro continued to weaken and breached below the 1.2184. If thus far the US Treasury yields had been the main driver, things will change today. The ECB interest rate decision and press conference are due later today and as usual, the meeting could produce volatility. The central bank had been cautious in changing its statement. But the current economic development might force Mario Draghi to set something about monetary policy normalization.
The price is consolidating higher right now, but 1.2184, the broken support now resistance could cap the upside. A breach above will mean the price action will head higher, towards the 4h chart 20 EMA.
A strong support lies around the 1.2154 level. If sellers will manage to break it impulsively, further slides are expected. The next support is located around 1.2100 area.
- The ECB interest rate decision will be released at 11:45 am, followed by the Press Conference at 00:30 pm.
- From the US, Durable Goods Orders are due also at 00:30 pm. Initial Jobless Claims + Continuous Jobless Claims are also scheduled at that time.
The bullish trend does not look like it will fade anytime soon. The price had not touched the EMA not a single time this week, buyers being eager to enter the market at the high point. However, caution is advised, as today we have the ECB meeting and there is a strong correlation with the EURUSD. The price might move aggressively if important news is released.
We can see sellers emerged around 0.9826-0.9845 resistance area. However, the candles pale in size compared to the green candles. If buyers manage to break above, the next level to watch is 0.9875.
On the downside, if sellers will manage to push the price lower, 0.9803 and the 4h chart 20 EMA will be finally reached. Even a short-term breach below the EMA won’t negate the bullish bias.
Despite the short-term double bottom, the pair resumed the downside. It almost reached the weekly low, before starting to consolidate higher again. We see that around the 1h chart 20 EMA, the sellers had managed to resume impulsively a few times. If the scenario will repeat again, we might see a new weekly low reached until the end of this week. Sterling continues to be under pressure and the US dollar is on high heels.
At the time of writing, we are around the EMA. If selling resumes strongly, the next support to watch could be 1.3911. Below it, 1.3885 is the next support, which might also cap the downside for today.
On the upside, the buyers will need to break above the EMA to reach 1.3965 and 1.3992. Around the second one, the upside had been capped yesterday. Sellers might be active there again.
- From the UK, BBA Mortgage Approvals are due at 08:30 am GMT.
Similar to the USDCHF pair, this one had also made new weekly highs and continued higher. Also, it did not reach the EMA for the entire week, which gives us signals that overbought conditions are in play. Due to that fact, at least a consolidation lower might be seen. We have indicators from the US today and we expect them to have an influence on price. Overall, the bullish trend is strong and in the long run, it should continue higher.
At the present time, we see resistance around 109.35 level. The sellers are weak though, which raises risks of some bullish spikes in the next few hours. The next resistance above it located around 109.69.
On the downside, if sellers start to push the price lower stronger, the first support area is formed by 108.85 and the 4h chart 20 EMA. Below, 108.44 follows next.
The Aussie continued to weaken yesterday and the price is still below our price channel. However, starting from the Asian session the price recovered on the upside and it could continue further. A good sign for buyers will be if the price will break back inside the channel. That will definitely mean further losses will be erased. The selling leg is very impulsive, though, and sellers might be waiting for a rally to rejoin.
Short-term resistance had emerged around 0.7578, but we believe buyers will be able to break it. Next, the bottom line of the channel will be tested and if case a break above will follow, the 20 EMA will be in front.
On the downside, support can be seen around 0.7555. The sellers will need to break below in order to be able to reach 0.7535 support.