Daily Forex forecast analysis 12-06-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 12-06-2017 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
The price broke below our ascending trend line and also, has been trending below the 4h chart 20 EMA since the start of the week. The market is still digesting the US tax cut vote that took place on Saturday, but risks lie ahead, as the US government could face a shut down until the end of the year if there won’t be an agreement on the funding capabilities. Thus far, the market does not look concerned about that issue, but time could run out and the dollar could be under pressure.
During the Asian session, the price managed to rebound higher, erasing some of yesterday’s losses. We expect sellers to resume around the EMA and 1.1861, while above them the trend line and 1.1884 will follow.
On the downside, 1.1825-1.1815 support area could bring new bulls into the market, while a breach below yesterday’s low will open more downside ground towards 1.1774 and 1.1751 levels.
- From the US, ADP Employment Change at 01:15 pm, Unit Labor Cost, and Nonfarm Productivity at 01:30 pm, are the main events of the day.
Following the Friday slump, the dollar-swiss rebounded strongly and managed to cover the big bearish candle on the 4h chart. The bulls managed to rebound each time the sellers tried to drive the price lower and thus far the price action held above the 4h chart 20 EMA. The selling pressure does not seem impulsive at the time of writing that is why we expect a further continuation on the upside. Only a break below the EMA could spark some stronger selling interest.
Since that did not take place until now, our assumption is that the price action will head towards 0.9874-0.9886 resistance area, where the price started to correct lower during the Asian session. A break above yesterday high could open more upside room towards 0.9920 level.
On the downside, we expect support to follow around the 20 EMA and 0.9845 level. Sellers will need to breach that zone in order to manage to reach 0.9827 and 0.9814 support levels.
- From Switzerland, CPI figures are due to being released at 08:15 am GMT.
Even though cable had a pretty choppy performance since the start of the week, the downside had been favored thus far. We see resistance emerging around the 1h chart 20 EMA, as the optimism around the Brexit negotiations is fading. Latest official comments point towards the fact that there is still a lot of work to be done, confirming that tough discussions are taking place.
From a technical point of view, the price action had been capped by the 20 EMA for the last 24 hours, suggesting that the sellers are managing to control the order flow. We expect support around 1.3413 and 1.3380, where the downside had been capped yesterday.
On the upside, if the bulls will manage to breach above the 20 EMA, 1.3447 resistance will follow. Above that point, we’ve seen sellers reacting to 1.3479 and 1.3511 levels, so you should watch those as well.
There are no important economic indicators due to being released from the UK today.
Since the price had tested the broken trend line, the sellers had been in control and managed to break below the 4h chart 20 EMA, confirming that the appetite for selling had been decently high. The US dollar managed to have a good performance against the other majors, but against the yen, after the upside gap at the start of the week, the downside had been favored. As long as the price will remain below the EMA, an extension lower could be the most likely scenario.
Thus far, some buying interest could be seen around the 112.15 support, but a breach lower could open more downside room towards 111.88 and 111.70 levels, where stronger bullish interest could emerge.
On the upside, we expect resistance around 112.38 level and the 20 EMA, while an upside break above them could mean a new test of the trend line will follow until the end of the week.
Following yesterday’s RBA meeting, which sparked some bullish interest, the Aussie had been under pressure and now the price action is again below the trend line. We mentioned in our yesterday daily forecast that some selling pressure could follow towards the trend line, but it seems the selling pressure is much greater than we anticipated. Below the trend line and 20 EMA, more downside pressure is expected.
0.7575 support is the first in the way of the sellers, while if it fails, further downside pressure is expected to drive the price action towards the 0.7555, where we’ve seen stronger bullish interest emerging there.