Daily Forex forecast analysis 12-08-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 12-08-2017 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
The euro continues to lose ground against the US dollar and the price is headed towards the 1.1750 support level, at the time of writing. We can see a retest of 1.1808 resistance level during the Asian session today, followed by strong selling pressure. The employment figures that are due today from the US should play a major key since expectations are high around those numbers. Higher readings will confirm a Fed rate hike will follow.
Currently, the price action is a few pips above the 1.1750 support and given the structure of the bearish leg, a break lower and continuation towards 1.1721 or 1.1686 seems the most likely scenario.
On the upside, the buyers should have a limited impact on the price development, unless the US employment figures will disappoint. In that case, a retracement higher towards the 4h chart 20 EMA could be seen.
- From the US, NFP and Unemployment Rate are due at 01:30 pm GMT.
Dollar-swiss is edging higher and is currently more than 150 pips above the weekly opening price. The US Senate vote that took place last Saturday was the main catalyzer for the move as economic expansion is expected due to the implementation of the new tax code. So far, the move is very impulsive, with the sellers barely covering little ground. There is no sign of retracement at this point, so we assume the trend will extend further.
The price is approaching the 0.9971 resistance level, but given the impulsiveness of the move, a breach above it towards the 0.9985 looks pretty likely. The psychological area around the 1.0000 level should follow them.
On the downside, since the price action had been floating above the 20 EMA since Monday, we expect reduced selling interest, as long as no negative news that could hurt the US dollar will appear.
There are no important headlines from Switzerland today, just the US employment figures are expected to generate high volatility.
Despite the US dollar surge, we can see on the other major pairs, cable managed to rebound decently yesterday, as rumors about a possible deal between the EU and UK officials will be announced shortly. The tensions are high since there is less than one and a half year until the UK will formally leave the EU and there is a lot of work to be done. The price will definitely be volatile in the period ahead, so watch closely the headlines.
So far, it seems like the 1.3510 resistance level managed to generate some decent selling interest since for the last two hours, the price dropped by 40 pips. 1.3460 and 1.3415 should follow as support if the move will extend lower.
On the upside, a bullish rebound could mean pressure will mount on the 1.3510 resistance, while a break above current daily high will expose 1.3538 and then last week high, located above it.
- From the UK, Industrial Production figures, Manufacturing Production figures and Trade Balance figures are due to being released at 09:30 am GMT.
The dollar-yen continued to ascend yesterday and even managed to break above the trend line again. The bullish move is impulsive enough since only one red candle could be seen in the entire bullish leg. That confirms the market participants are dumping the yen in favor of the US dollar and since a breakout back above the trend line took place, the outlook for the short and mid-term horizon had been shifted towards the buy side.
Above the trend line, 113.57 and 113.75 resistance levels could potentially trigger at least some short-term profiting taking, while above them we have the 113.97 level, where stronger selling could emerge.
On the downside, a few hours ago the price action found support around the 113.32 level, but if a breach lower takes place, we should see renewed buying interest around the trend line and 113.07, key area.
The Aussie broke lower, below the 0.7530 weekly low and key support, confirming the strong appetite for selling had continued. Since the sellers made a new weekly low, that confirms the bulls are being overwhelmed and the prospects for a strong rebound higher are relatively low at this point. If the price action will end the week below 0.7530 that will certainly confirm the downside could continue lower in the following days.
The price retreated higher for a few hours recently but found resistance around the 0.7514. Very close to that level we have the 0.75321 followed by the previous weekly low. Adding the 20 EMA to the list, you can see there are a lot of potential selling levels.
On the downside, an extension of the already impulsive move will drive the price action towards 0.7493 or 0.7472 support levels.