Daily Forex forecast analysis 12-11-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 12-11-2017 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
The price started to rebound on Friday and continued to do that today during the Asian session. The euro is favored by the latest Brexit highlights. It seems like the UK already lost the game, agreeing to fund the EU budget after the exit and also, developing a friendly legislation for the immigrants. The price is located on the 20 EMA at the time of writing. We expect to see if it will continue to edge higher, as the focus could turn on this week’s Fed meeting.
Resistance is expected to emerge around the 20 EMA. If a breakout above it takes place, we should see selling interest around 1.1808 or 1.1825. Since the price had been under pressure for an entire week, we expect the upside to be limited.
If the selling pressure resumes and the price action continues to be located below the 20 EMA, 1.1751 and 1.1721, little below last week low, should act as short-term support levels.
There are no important economic indicators due from EU or US today, so we expect a mild start of the week.
The price action gapped higher at the open, but the selling pressure quickly resumed and broke below last week low. Due to the negative correlation with the EURUSD, the dollar had also been under pressure. The tax cuts plan from the US needs to take a final form, based on the votes of the House of Representatives and House of Senate. This Wednesday has expected a joint meeting between representatives from both Houses and we could see some caution from investors until then.
Since the price action broke below the last week low around the 0.9923 level, we expect it to act as resistance if the price rebounds towards it. Selling interest is also expected around the 20 EMA and higher around 0.9932-0.9940.
On the downside, a continuation of the current bearish leg could head into 0.9907 or even lower towards 0.9898 level. The selling pressure looks impulsive enough to believe the leg will extend further.
Late Friday saw sterling under pressure against all major currencies, including the US dollar. The Brexit negotiations will not be in favor of the UK. After reaching the 1.3510 resistance level, the price slumped 150 pips, top tick to bottom tick and consolidated today during the Asian session. Since the consolidation came after a strong downside move, sellers could resume again and continue to push the price lower.
If the sellers will truly resume, they could encounter support around 1.3382 and 1.3359 level, where the downside had been capped on Friday. A break below those level will add pressure on the 1.3317 support.
There are no economic indicators due from the UK today.
Dollar-yen ended last week back above the long-term trend line, which is encouraging for the next few day. Will be interesting to watch how the price action will behave above the line, since the move prior to the breakout was extremely impulsive. If the price will continue at the same pace, then further gains lie ahead. The focus will turn on the Fed meeting and tax cuts plan highlights. A Fed rate hike is already priced in, but the market will watch the projections for the next year.
During the Asian session, the price consolidated in a decently narrow range. If the bulls will put pressure on the current daily high, then a further continuation towards 113.75 and 113.97 is expected to follow.
On the downside, if the selling pressure resumes, we expect 113.32 and the trend line to provide strong support. Brief breaks below the trend line should be capped by either 113.07 or the 20 EMA.
The Aussie had been consolidating higher since the weekly open and last week low had not been under pressure. The bulls broke back above the 1h chart 20 EMA. That suggests at least some heavy profit taking is in progress. There are some key events from the US this week. Investors will most likely have a close eye on the US dollar. Depending on the outcome, we could see a continuation lower or a rebound higher, towards the broken trend line.
Currently, the price action is heading towards the 0.7532 resistance, where the selling pressure resumed on Friday. A breach above that level will mean 0.7541 and 0.7556 are due to follow on the upside.
Renewed selling pressure could, however, drive the price towards the EMA. If bulls will not be able to support the price, then last week low will be under huge pressure.