Daily Forex forecast analysis 12-13-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 12-13-2017 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
The euro had been trading lower yesterday after the selling resumed impulsively around the 20 EMA. The price action managed to break below last week low and reached our 1.1721 support. We’ve mentioned that area in our yesterday daily forecast as well. Today during the Asian session the price managed to pick up again. Currently is heading towards the 20 EMA as we expect to see if the EMA will act as resistance.
The EMA and 1.1781 level are expected to act as a resistance zone and bring new sellers. The 1.1800 area lies above and should also do the same.
On the downside, renewed selling pressure will drive the price action back below towards last week low. 1.1721, where the price started to bounce 12 hours ago and 1.1689 could follow if sellers will resume impulsively.
- From Germany, Wholesale Price Index figures and HICP are due at 07:00 am GMT.
- From the US, CPI figures will be published at 01:30 pm GMT, followed by the Fed interest rate decision at 07:00 pm. A press conference will follow at 07:30 pm.
The dollar-swiss had been consolidating around the 4h chart 20 EMA for 40 hours, approximately. It seems like the bullish pressure around the EMA is not strong enough to generate a new leg up. Also, we suspect the market participants are cautious ahead of the Fed meeting that is due later today. With a rate hike priced in, the focus will be on the projected number of hikes for 2018.
If the Fed will improve its outlook for 2018 and will expect inflation to pick up stronger, that will mean an aggressive tightening will most likely follow, favoring the US dollar. On the upside, above the EMA we have both the 0.9935 area and the last week high at 0.9977. Those levels are expected to be under pressure if the Fed will deliver.
On the other hand, if the comments will be cautious and hesitating that could mean some dollar weakness will be seen. 0.9896 acted as support thus far, but a break below the current weekly low will push the price towards 0.9870 or 0.9836.
Cable continued to edge lower for the last 24 hours, even though the inflation figures from the UK reached new highs. The market participants have not been impressed by that fact and the price action reached the 1.3317 support level. We’ve mentioned it yesterday as well. As you can see thus far the bulls managed to cap the downside there. The price could try to reach the 20 EMA in the short-term.
If that will be the case, 1.3359 is currently located in the area and together with the EMA should form a nice resistance. Above the EMA, 1.3383 and 1.3415 should be next levels to watch.
On the downside, a continuation below the yesterday low will open more downside room towards the 1.3270 area, where further support could follow.
- Employment figures and Average earnings will be published at 09:30 am GMT.
There had been some intense movement for dollar-yen today during the Asian session. The price slumped short-term and reached the trend line, where bulls managed to resume and push the price higher. Although we are still above the trend line, the Fed meeting is expected to set the tone for the next few days. Traders should watch first how the economic picture will turn out to be and only then place trades.
On the downside, the 113.32 and the trend line should act as support levels if the selling resumes. A break below the trend line will suggest a weakening of the overall bullish leg took place. 113.07 and 112.87 should follow as support below the trend line.
On the upside, buyers will need to break back above the 20 EMA in order to be able to put pressure on 113.57 and 113.75, where the current weekly high is located.
The Aussie picked up more impulsively yesterday and managed to break above the 4h chart 20 EMA. Although some short-term selling pressure could be seen, now the price action is back up, around yesterday’s high. A breakout higher seems imminent at the current stage and the question remains how far it will go. We assume there is potential for a new retest of the broken trend line and we expect to see if that will take place.
Around the 0.7575 we should see at least some profit taking, but the level had already been breached, so the next target should be around 0.7596 and the trend line, where selling interest should increase.
On the downside, 0.7556 and the EMA are expected to provide support. Only a breach below those areas could mean further weakness could follow and all the weekly gains will be at risk.