Daily Forex forecast analysis 12-14-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 12-14-2017 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
The US dollar had been again under pressure yesterday. The inflation figures from the US disappointed at the open of the US session. Also, the Fed meeting that followed did not satisfy investors. The interest rate increased by 0.25%, as expected. However, the central left projections from the next year unchanged at 3. The euro had benefited from that news and we believe there could be room for more upside gains.
So far, the price had found resistance around the 1.1841 level. A new buying wave could break through that level and push the price towards 1.1855 and 1.1875.
On the downside, support is expected to emerge around 1.1816-1.1808, where a previously broker resistance was located. We also expect buyers around the 20 EMA. A breach below the EMA should expose 1.1792.
- From the EU, the main event of the day should be the ECB interest rate decision and press conference, scheduled for 00:45 pm and 01:30 pm, respectively.
- From the US, Retail Sales figures + Initial Jobless Claims and Continuous Jobless Claims will follow at 01:30 pm.
Dollar-swiss also slumped followed weak inflation and bad news from the Fed. Looking at the chart, you can see that the price action context had changed. Now, the price is located below the 1h chart 20 EMA and treated the EMA as resistance several times. Looking ahead, even though a bullish corrective move could follow, the downside should continue further. As long as the price will remain below the EMA sellers are favored.
So far, support had emerged around 0.9841 level, as we can see it tested twice. A breach below current daily low will mean sellers resumed. A further continuation towards 0.9826 or possibly 0.9809 should follow.
On the upside, 0.9854 and 0.9869, where the 20 EMA is also located, are expected to act as resistance. Breaking above the 20 EMA will signal stronger bullish interest had emerged.
- From Switzerland, SNB interest rate is due at 08:30 am. A press conference will follow an hour later.
Cable had found support around the 1.3319 level, which had been last week low. After testing it several time, the bulls resumed the upside. Latest US inflation figures and Fed news had supported the move. Now the price action is located more than 120 pips from the lows. There is no selling sign at the present time. We expect the bullish move to continue to extend further in the short term.
So far, the selling pressure is reduced and we expect a continuation towards 1.3456 level. Above that price level, we have 1.3480 and 1.3514 as our next resistance levels.
If the sellers will manage to drive the price lower, the EMA should act as support. Below it, 1.3367 and 1.3345 are due to follow and cap the downside.
- From the UK, Retail Sales figures are due at 09:30 am GMT. Two hours and a half later, the BOE meeting and rate decision will be in the spotlight.
The dollar-yen also got hurt by the latest development. The price action structure that unfolded for the last 24 hours suggests a weakening of the bullish momentum took place. Now, we are below the 20 EMA, after a very impulsive selling leg down. The corrective moves do not cover too much ground. That detail suggests that a continuation on the downside could be seen at the end of this week.
The bulls managed to cap the downside around the 112.56 support level. Volatility had also been reduced during the Asian session. A new round of selling will put pressure on the level. Also, a break lower will expose both the 112.36 and 112.14 support.
On the upside, we expect resistance around 112.79 and the 1h chart 20 EMA. If the sellers won’t manage to cap the upside there, 113.04 is due to follow. Since we have a strong swing point there, selling interest should be higher.
The Aussie had a pretty good performance this week. It broke back above the trend line and the bulls resumed impulsively afterward. Also, the price action broke above the 0.7644 key resistance area. Looking at the entire leg up, there are limited signs of selling interest. The bulls had been driving the order flow impulsively and should continue to do so. Only if a strong break back below the 0.7644 level should suggest a weakening of the move took place.
At the time of writing, there is no sign of weakness. That is why we expect continuation towards 0.7694 resistance level. Around that area, the price action might become choppy.
On the downside, the 0.7644 is expected to act as support, now that it has been broken. Below it, we have both the 0.7624 and 0.7596 ready to act as support.