Daily Forex forecast analysis 12-15-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 12-15-2017 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
The euro took a downward path yesterday, after dovish comments from the ECB President Mario Draghi. The price action reached the 1.1860 key swing point and then resumed the downside. It is now trading around 80 pips lower below the level. But, there seems to be some bullish interest around the 4h chart 20 EMA. We could see some upward swings, as the pressure on the dollar could resume.
There are raising doubts on the US tax plan adoption. One final vote is expected to come next week. However, there are some skeptical politicians on the subject. If the rumors will intensify, we expect the price action to head higher again, towards 1.1841 or 1.1860.
If the downside will continue to extend, 1.1765 could be under pressure again. A break below yesterday low will open more ground towards 1.1732 support.
- From EU, Trade Balance figures are due to being released at 10:00 am GMT.
- From the US, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization will follow at 02:15 pm.
The dollar-swiss rebounded yesterday, due to negative correlation with the EURUSD. However, the upside seems to be fading at the time of writing. Sellers resumed around the 4h chart 20 EMA and 0.9889 key resistance area. Overall, the price action did not manage to break above the EMA. That means a new retest towards the current weekly low could follow today.
Since we can see selling interest around the 20 EMA, we assume each upside attempt will be stopped by new selling orders. As long as the price action will stay below the EMA, a move towards 0.9855 and 0.9943 looks very likely.
On the upside, buyers will need to manage to break above yesterday high. If that will take place, then 0.9908 and 0.9921 will follow as resistance.
There are no important economic events from Switzerland today.
Cable continued to head higher yesterday, adding new daily gains. However, there had been some selling interest around 1.3458 resistance level. The price action slumped short-term following the resistance test. Overall, the price action is still located above the 4h chart 20 EMA. We expect to see if the bulls will manage to hold the ground. If they will, we believe there could be room for more upside gains.
On the upside, if the bulls will put pressure on the 1.3458 a possible breakout above yesterday high could be seen. If that will take place, we expect the price action to head towards 1.3510, where sellers could rejoin the market again.
On the downside, the 20 EMA should act as a dynamic support. A breach below it will expose the 1.3384 and 1.3353 levels. The upside started this week around 1.3221 level, so there should be buying interest there as well.
The dollar-yen continued to head lower for the 24 hours. The price action broke below the 112.45 support level and thus far, no significant bullish sign can be seen. It seems like the yen is favored by the recent political uncertainty in the US. If the tax cuts plan will not be adopted this year, then pressure will mount on the US dollar. The yen could be favored further, due to its safe-haven status.
Since we do not see any significant bullish sign, we assume the downside will extend. Below yesterday’s low, 112.01 and 111.88 are some decent short-term support levels. A break below them will expose the 111.68 level.
On the upside, we expect the bulls to have a very limited impact. Sellers are expected to rejoin the trend if the price action will manage to reach the 112.45 resistance level. We believe the price will continue to trade below the 20 EMA.
The Aussie consolidated in a very narrow range yesterday, following a strong bullish upward move. The price action did not manage to break below the 0.7654 resistance level. That communicates there was buying interest at the previous weekly high. The current price action is pointing towards a breakout higher. Selling interest is very limited at this point, so we expect the leg to extend further.
Above the yesterday high, which should not pose any major threat to the buyers, 0.7687 follows. 0.7710 is another level sellers could watch for the short-term.
On the downside, if the selling resumes, the price action should find support around 0.7654 again. A break lower will expose 0.7637 and the 20 EMA.