Daily Forex forecast analysis 12-19-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 12-19-2017 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
Even though the price gapped lower at the open, the euro had a positive day overall. The price action broke back above the 20 EMA and reached our descending trend line. We can see a pin bar on the 4h chart, suggesting that there had been selling interest. However, after the pin bar, we can see market hesitation. That is why we expect a new bullish attempt over to course of today.
If the bulls will push the price higher, we expect resistance around 1.1806 and the trend line. A breach above that area will mean yesterday high will be under pressure again.
On the downside, a strong breakout below the 20 EMA will be needed to confirm selling pressure resumed impulsively. If buyers manage to pass through 1.1766, then a further slide towards yesterday low could follow.
- From Germany, three IFO indicators are due at 08:00 am GMT.
- From the US, Housing Starts and Building Permits will follow at 01:30 pm GMT.
Following the Friday bullish spike, dollar-swiss had resumed the downside impulsively yesterday. The price action almost broke below last week low, before some consolidation emerged. Currently, the consolidation phase is still in play. However, since the bullish response is very weak, we assume a new round of selling will follow. Stronger buying interest will be needed to confirm buyers control the order flow.
If the selling will resume, then yesterday low, followed by last week low will be under pressure. Breaking it will offer the sellers the chance to drive the price action towards 0.9827 or 0.9813.
On the upside, if the buyers will manage to drive the price action higher, we expect strong resistance around the 4h chart 20 EMA. A US Senate vote on the tax cuts bill is expected today and that could be the catalyzer for a new bull move.
Cable found strong support around last week high and the price action resumed the upside impulsively. There had been some worries last week regarding the fragmentation of the ruling party in the UK. It seems like the market is now expecting Theresa May to manage to solve that issue and the demand for sterling had been increasing yesterday. We’ll be interesting to see how far the leg up will go.
Currently, the price action is hovering around the 4h chart 20 EMA. A strong break below it will communicate selling pressure had resumed. That will mean yesterday and last week low will be under pressure again.
On the upside, if buyers will manage to find support around the 20 EMA, a continuation towards our descending trend line seems the most likely scenario.
Following the brief slump that can be seen on the chart at the weekly open, the dollar-yen had been consolidating below the 4h chart 20 EMA. The US Senate vote that is expected today, should provide some further support for the US dollar. That should happen if the widely expected tax cuts measures will finally be adopted. Better economic outlook and the Fed pressured to raise rates higher will mean the US dollar can advance higher.
Getting back to the technical analysis, at the time of writing the price action is right at the 20 EMA. If selling pressure will resume again, a retest of yesterday low should follow. A break below it will mean last week low will be under pressure.
On the upside, buyers will need to break above the 20 EMA and yesterday high in order to be able to reach the 112.96 or 113.13 resistance levels.
The Aussie managed to find support around the 0.7644-0.7653 key area. Since the week started the price action had been trading above that area, communicating there is bullish interest there. If the price action will not breach below it, we expect last week high to be under pressure soon. Only a breakout below the key area will signal renewed strong selling pressure had emerged.
Since we are above our key area, we assume the price action will continue to advance higher towards 0.7687 and last week high. Only a break above that area could open more ground towards 0.7708 level.
On the downside, sellers will need to break below the 20 EMA and the key area in order to be able to push the price action towards the trend line.