Daily Forex forecast analysis 12-20-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market. These analyses are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 12-20-2017 includes information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD.
The euro had been gaining ground for the last 24 hours against the US dollar. The price action broke above our descending trend line and above Monday high. Currently, there is no downside pressure, even though the House of Representatives have voted for the final version of the tax cuts plan yesterday. Looking ahead, as long as the price action will hold above the trend line, there is room for more gains.
During the Asian session, the price found short-term resistance around 1.1847. A break on the upside will expose last week high around 1.1863. So far, the bullish leg up does not show signs of weakness.
On the downside, sellers will need to break below the Monday high and head impulsively towards the trend line. The 20 EMA also lies there and a strong break below both will be needed to confirm sellers had resumed impulsively.
- PPI figures from Germany are due at 07:00 am. Current Account figures for the EU will follow at 09:00 am.
- From the US, Existing Home Sales figures will be published at 02:00 pm.
Even though a brief break below 0.9845 took place dollar-swiss ended yesterday above the line. We can see a bullish engulfing bar with a long tail on the 4h chart. However, that followed is not the impulsive buying we had expected. Instead, the price action continued to consolidate below the 20 EMA. Thus far, there is limited buying interest, so a continuation lower looks more likely.
For that to take place, buyers will need to break again below 0.9845 support and also below yesterday low. 0.9827 and 0.9813 are expected to act as support below.
On the upside, resistance will follow at 0.9861 and the 20 EMA. A break above will open more upside room towards 0.9880 and 0.9889.
- From Switzerland, SNB Quarterly Bulletin will be published at 02:00 pm. It is not expected to generate high volatility.
Cable had been under pressure yesterday, but today during the Asian session we can see some modest gains. So far, the price action is pretty choppy and we do not see any directional bias since the start of the week. Most likely, the market participants are awaiting fresh news about the political worries from the UK. The PM is expected to bring together its party colleagues and move forward with the Brexit negotiations.
If that will be the case, the price could continue upward and a break above the current weekly high will expose 1.3220. Little above that level, we have a descending trend line that holds pretty nicely until now. We expect sellers to resume there as well.
On the downside, sellers will need to break below the 1h chart 20 EMA in order to be able to put under pressure 1.3353 and then yesterday low.
- BOE Carney will hold a speech at 01:15 pm GMT.
The dollar-yen had been a significant gainer yesterday. The price action managed to break above the 1h chart 20 EMA and traded above it. At the time of writing the upside is still intact and no significant sign of selling can be seen. Since the price action looks impulsive enough we believe there is room for more upside gains in the short-term. Only a strong break below the EMA will raise some doubts.
At the time of writing the price action looks like the buyers are putting pressure on yesterday high. A break above it will mean 113.13 and 113.25 will follow and could form a resistance area that could cap the upside.
On the downside, support is expected around 112.88 and EMA. A break below will mean 112.68 level could be hit.
The Aussie continued to consolidate above the 4h chart 20 EMA for the last 24 hours. The bullish momentum took a break, but since the corrective move comes after a strong push up, the upside is still favored. As long as selling will be limited, buyers could rebound any time. Only a break below the EMA could revive sellers and push the price lower, towards the trend line.
Currently, we see buyers emerging around the EMA, which confirms it is a strong bullish area. A new rebound higher could drive the price action towards yesterday high and then 0.7687 resistance level.
On the upside, if the EMA will fail to provide support, 0.7644 and 0.7634 will follow below it. Only a break below current weekly low could mean a new retest of the trend line will follow.