Daily Forex forecast analysis 01-30-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 01-30-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & USDCAD
The price lost some ground in the last 4 days, retreating around 120 pips,top tick to bottom tick. Even though the correction seems solid, at this point in time there is no clear evidence that a strong bear move would further develop.
On the way up, 1.0719, the bottom of the range we’ve discussed last week, is the first resistance area, while above, 1.0770 could be the next level where price might head.
On the downside, if the correction extends further, 1.0656, December 30th high and a key support level could spark some buying interest. If the market breaks it, 1.0623 and 1.0588 could represent other support areas.
From the European Union:
- Consumer Confidence(Jan) will be released at 10:00am GMT(-4.9 previous).
- Business Climate (Jan) at the same time(0.79 previous).
- Industrial confidence(Jan) (0.1 previous, 0.2 forecast).
- At 01:00pm GMT CPI from Germany(YoY) (1.7% previous, 2.0% forecast).
- Also from Germany, Harmonised Index of consumer prices(YoY)(1.7% previous, 2.0% forecast).
From United States:
- Personal Spending at 01:30GMT (0.2% previous, 0.4% forecast).
- Personal Income at the same time(0.0% previous, 0.4% forecast).
- Core Personal Consumption Expenditure-Price Index(MoM)(0.0% previous, 0.2% forecast).
The price is still stuck in a range,between 0.9973(bottom) and 1.0018(top) and looking at this point it’s hard to speculate in which direction it would break. A more cautious approach would be adviced, taking a decision after the break being the best choice.
If the range would break to the upside, the first target would be around 1.0034(January 20th low) and on a break above it, 1.0054 would be exposed. If the market extends higher, 1.0056(December 30th low) and the area around 1.0113-1.0121 could cap the upside,at least for the short term.
If the range breaks to the downside, the market would test the resistance around 0.9955.If it fails, 0.9928 and 0.9878 would be next potential targets.
-From Switzerland, KOF Leading Indicator would be released at 08:00am GMT(102.2 previous, no forecast).
As we mentioned in one of our last week market commentary, we assumed cable would stall around 1.2673, key resistance area, and that actually happened, the price testing it and stopping exactly at the level. Even though the market sold out for two consecutive days, we think there is still room for a move to the upside before any leg down would take place.
If the market starts to trend higher, it could test 1.2673, last week high, and if it manages to break above, further gains towards 1.2725 would be on the table.
If the correction extends below the support area around 1.2544, we might see the market testing 1.2415 level.However, at this point, we expect at least a mild move up before any downward move resumes.
There are no news to be published from UK, only the US session being full of economic news, so watch carefully those ones.
We mentioned several times in the last weeks the key resistance area around 115.06-115.22 and Friday the price stopped exactly around it,with no 1h candle managing to close above it.This price action formation suggests that sellers are willing to step in and defend the level.
If the market doesn’t manage to break above it, we might see a leg down starting to form, possibly heading towards 114.40. On a break lower 113.80 would be a next potential target.
If the resistance area breaks, the price would extend higher, probably towards 116.01,or even above, to 116.87(January 11th high).
-From Japan, at 11:30pm GMT,there are two unemployment figures that will be published.Unemployment Rate(3.1% previous, 3.1% forecast) and Jobs/applicants ratio(1.41 previous, 1.42 forecast). Also Industrial Production(MoM) will be released at the same time(1.5% previous, 0.3% forecast).
The market managed to start trending higher on Friday, breaking above our resistance area around 1.3106. It closed around 1.3152, and looking at this point, a possibility of an extension upwards seems likely.
The first resistance area lies around 1.3173, and if it doesn’t provide enough selling pressure, the price would extend higher towards 1.3296.
If the downside resumes, we keep our view that it could test 1.3028 area and then start to trend higher.
Considering that the price has already started to form corrections to the upside, we might see a stronger move up in the following days.