Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-03-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-03-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The pair was a big loser last week, ending with a -175 pips loss. Even though the selloff has been strong, the bias remains to the upside as long as the price stays above 1.0522. Only a strong breakout below that level would negate our bullish bias. On the short term, however, the downward leg might extend lower, since the selling pressure has been very aggressive for the last four days.
Zooming to the 4h chart, considering that the market gapped higher today, we expect the bullish corrective structure that is in play right now, to extend a little higher, towards 1.0696-1.0705 area. A close above it would expose 1.0719. We expect the upside to be limited at this point, since there is no clear evidence that the buyers are driving the market right now.
On the downside, if the selling pressure resumes, 1.0639 would be our first support area, while a breakout below it would open further room towards 1.0599.
- Markit Manufacturing PMI for the EU will be published at 08:00am GMT. Also, two PPI figures will come out at 10:00am.
- ISM Prices Paid and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures are due at 02:00pm.
Dollar-swiss surged last week, managing to close green four consecutive daily candles in a row, ending the week with almost 200 pips gain. Looking at this point, the bullish impulsive move suggests that there is still room for further gains since every bearish consolidation has been very shallow. If the pattern continues, more gains are expected in the short term horizon, considering that the fundamentals favor the us dollar right now.
Technically speaking, if the price moves below 1.0002 area, we expect it to consolidate downwards and there could be room for a retest of 0.9959-0.9943 area. We expect the buying interest to reemerge at that point, but if that does not happen, further slides could follow towards 0.9880.
On the upside, if the buyers keep pushing the price upwards, we think there is potential for an extension towards 1.0059 area. Above it, 1.0090 and 1.0125 follow.
- From Switzerland, Real Retail Sales are due to being published at 07:15am GMT.
After the selloff that previewed the Article 50 triggering, the market started to form a bullish corrective structure, managing to recover a big part of the losses. Looking at the price action, the price is forming higher lows and higher highs, suggesting that the buyers are willing to buy at a higher price. Also, every bullish leg is backed by an upward short term ascending trend line and as long as the price does not break below it impulsively, we believe there is still room for upside gains.
Our first support area is located around 1.2523 area and we believe that if the market would not be able to keep the price above it, there is room for a retest of the ascending trend line and 1.2476. We expect the downside to be limited by that area.
On the upside, if the buyers keep driving the price higher, there is potential for further gains towards 1.2581. Above it, 1.2614 follows.
- From UK, Markit Manufacturing PMI will come out at 08:30am.
The price found support around 110.19 area and then started to trend higher, breaking above 111.57-111.68 area key resistance area. We also have to mention that the buyers were unable to hold the price above it and taking that into consideration, we believe the sellers might reenter the market again ,aggressively. We keep a bearish bias as long as the price keeps trading below our key area.
Zooming to the 1h chart, the price has consolidated throughout the Asian Session and so far we believe a retest of our key resistance area is on the table. If a breakout above it occurs, more upside gains would follow towards 112.21 area, last week high. If the buyers manage to overcome that obstacle too, 112.88 could be the next potential target.
If the sellers can keep the price below 111.57-111.68 area, we believe more slides would follow in the next few days and we expect a retest of 110.74 or 110.19 area, where the buyers started to drive the price higher last week.
We mentioned a week ago the upside would be limited if the price reaches 0.7662 area. As you can see from our chart, the market hit the level and then started to move lower, being located around 0.7610 at the time of writing. So far, we believe the selling pressure will increase and we believe the price would break below last week low.
Our first support area is located around 0.7608 and we believe that if it will fade, 0.7591 and last week low below it would be put under pressure. If they fade, more slides would follow towards 0.7541 area.
On the upside, if the bulls manage to drive the price higher, we expect them to encounter resistance around 0.7638 area. Above it, 0.7662 area stands next and we expect the upside to be capped by it.