Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-07-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-07-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The price continues to trade inside our range structure, although we see larger wicks to the downside. Taking that into consideration, we expect a breakout below later today, as we have unemployment figure and nfp due to being released from US. In case the figures would come out below expectations, we could see dollar ease for short term, but very likely we will see positive jobs data today as well.
Technically speaking we need to see a close below 1.0641 level, which is the bottom of the range, to have the confirmation that the sellers regained control of the price and will drive it lower. The higher the clearing distance below the level, the better. If that scenario takes place, 1.0599 and 1.0522 could be potential targets.
The upside of the range should be tested again if the buyers manage to hold the price inside the range. As long as the price does not breach below 1.0641, there is room for a retest of 1.0680.Above it, 1.0697 and 1.0719 follow.
- From Germany, at 06:00am we have Industrial Production figures + Imports, Exports and Trade Balance.
- Later, from US, at 00:30pm, Unemployment Rate and NFP, will be published.
The area around 1.0029-1.0036 seems to be holding pretty nicely, capping the downside and providing enough buying power to support the price. As long as we do not have a clear breakout below it, the upside trend is intact and could advance further. However, the fundamentals will drive the market today as we have employment figures in the US + Trump – Xi-Jinping meeting + headlines regarding US launch of missiles against Syrian regime.
From a technical point of view, 1.0057 is our first resistance area and a clear breakout above it would open further room towards 1.0075. Above it, 1.0107 and 1.0155 follow.
As we mentioned earlier, a breakout below our support area would open further room to the downside, 1.0073 being our first target followed by 0.9994 and 0.9974.
- From Switzerland, Unemployment Rate will come out at 05:45am.
The pair continues to trade sideways, between 1.2465 and 1.2489 area. So far it is very difficult to speculate the next direction as today we have a calendar packed will many important economic indicators that would most likely impact the direction of price for the next few days. The key figures that you should watch are due to being released at 08:30am from UK and 00:30pm from US.
To give you a clearer technical picture, a breakout below the range mentioned above, would drive the price towards 1.2433 area. If the buyers will be unable to hold the price at that point, further slides could follow towards 1.2402.
An upside breakout of the range would mean further gains towards 1.2523 could follow, while an extension of the move higher would expose 1.2548 area.
- From UK, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production figures are due at 08:30am.
The dollar lost some ground against the yen after headlines in the Asian Session that the US launched missiles against Syria. The price dipped in an hour towards our support located around 110.27 and after a brief breakout below it, started to consolidate higher, recovering almost half of the losses. The order flow seems biased to the sell side for now, as we see new lower lows and lower high + impulsive bearish moves. The pattern could change later today, as the employment figures from the US could boost dollar demand.
The buyers would first need to overcome 110.65 area in order to open further room towards 110.97-111.11 resistance area. A breakout above it would open further ground towards 111.36.
On the downside, the price should close below 110.27 support in order to have confirmation that the sellers are the dominant force in the market. If that happens, more slides towards 109.69 could follow next.
The price continues to head south, having cleared 0.7541 support area. As long as it stays below it, we see increasing probability that a test and possible breakout of 0.7497 is possible today, as we expect volatility to spike. From an order flow perspective, it seems like the buyers are very mild and as long as they do not manage to drive the price above 0.7586 resistance, we maintain our bearish bias.
Regarding the support areas, 0.7517, the one already tested, is first followed by our key area 0.7497. A breakout and daily close below it would confirm a large double top formation and it could mean further slides to the downside could follow in the short and medium term. 0.7448 is our first support below.
On the upside, the buyers should drive the price above 0.7541 area in order to open further ground towards 0.7558. Above it, 0.7586 follows.