Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-10-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-10-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
Even though NFP figure came out below expectations, the dollar continued to advance, most likely due to an improvement in the unemployment rate(which dropped by 0.2%). The order flow continues to be heavily biased to the sell side, seven out of the last nine daily candles closing on the red territory. As long as we don’t see a very strong reaction from the bulls, the downside trend will continue to advance further.
Zooming to the 4h chart, we can see the price managed to break lower after a brief bullish spike following the NFP release. So far the pair seems poised for a retest of 1.0530 support area, but in order to get there the sellers would need to overcome 1.0567, short term support.
On the upside, a breakout above 1.0601-1.0609 area would open further ground towards 1.06298 area, where we expect a stronger reaction from the sellers, since it is a key resistance.
- The calendar is very thin, only from the US we expect the Fed’s Yellen speech at 06:00pm GMT.
The buyers continue to dominate the market, managing to send the price higher impulsively, eight out of the last nine daily candles closing in the green territory. Considering that the expectations over a new Fed rate hike in June continues to increase, we expect the uptrend to continue upwards in the short and medium term. The only negative influence could be political uncertainty, now that the US begun a new series of military procedures against Syria.
Shifting to the technical outlook and zooming to the 1h chart, you can see the bullish parabolic structure the price has. As long as the pattern is intact, we expect the price to advance further towards 1.0113. Above it, 1.0139 and 1.0159, a stronger resistance area, follow.
On the downside, we expect the sellers to have limited impact on price, our first support being located around 1.0077-1.0070 area. A breakout below it, could expose 1.0050 and 1.0036. Only a strong breakout below the lather could negate our bullish bias.
There are no headlines due to being released from Switzerland today.
The price is trading inside long term symmetrical triangle and at this point is located very close to it’s center. Also, it seems like the dollar is favored for the moment and we expect the price the move further towards 1.2200 area where the bottom line of the triangle is located. However, that could happen gradually and in a larger time frame since the sterling demand could also rise due to positive economic development and rising inflation.
Moving to the technical picture, the price reached 1.2375 key support on Friday, after selling impulsively following the release of the employment data in the US. Considering that the price did not manage to close well below the level, we expect a reaction from the buyers. If that happens, we could see a rebound towards 1.2419 or 1.2448 area. Above them, 1.2498, backed by the top line of triangle follows.
If the price continues to extend lower below 1.2375, we expect it to head towards 1.2340 and 1.2310. Below them, 1.2242 and the bottom line of the triangle follow.
Considering that there are no important headlines due to being released from UK, the price could oscillate in a medium size range.
After touching 110.27 area several times last week, dollar-yen managed to rebound and closed the week 80 pips higher. So far, the price action structure suggests that the buyers seem to be building up and we could see an extension of the price in the short and medium term. We also suspect a double bottom formation could be forming right now, with the bottom located around the previously mentioned level and the neckline around 111.44.
If the price continues to advance, 111.44 is the next resistance area and a breakout above it would confirm our pattern. Above it, 111.59 is a close resistance followed by 112.22, so a lot of upside potential.
On the downside, as long as the price stays below 111.12 , we expect at least further bearish consolidation of price and a retest of 110.72 area. Below it, further slides could follow towards 110.27.
The bearish trend continued to advance lower last week, almost touching 0.7492 area. Looking at the daily chart, a double top formation is already completed, with the top located around 0.7727 and the neckline around our previously mentioned level. Almost a 300 pips length, so a breakout below would mean a lot of downside potential.
Since the breakout had not occurred, anything is possible even a strong bullish rebound. If the buyers manage to hold the ground above 0.7492 area, we expect further gains to the upside, the price being able to reach 0.7516 and 0.7531. Above them, 0.7545 area, the top of Friday spike following the release of NFP figures, stands next.
If the breakout below occurs and our double top formation is confirmed, further slides could follow towards 0.7448 area. If the impulsive move extends lower, 0.7382 could be next target.