Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-11-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-11-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
Yesterday we’ve spotted a long term daily ascending trend line that can be seen on our chart. The price had been hovering around it yesterday, and so far it looks like the consolidation structure will extend further to the upside. We suspect a swift change of hands might take place, considering that the last leg down composed of 11 candles could not cover three hours of buying. That suggests a reduced interest from the sellers to drive the price lower and also that a rebound would follow.
Technically speaking, the trend line is located around 1.0595 at the time of writing. Very close to it, we have 1.0609, our first resistance area. The buyers should overcome both figures in order to be able to gain more ground towards 1.0620. If the price gets to that point, we suspect a retest of Friday high around 1.0665 could follow.
On the downside, if the price stays below the trend line and also, sellers step in each time the price touches it, we might see renewed downside risk and a retest of 1.0567, which was nearly hit by the market yesterday.
- Zew Survey figures from Germany and Industrial Production figures for EU are due at 09:00am GMT.
- From US, there are no important headlines.
We’ve also located a descending trend line on dollar swiss as well and it seems like the order seems to be shifting as well for this pair. So far, the last 12 candles could barely cover half of the losses produced by only three candles and that suggests the buyers find it difficult to control and move the price higher. As long as this template does not change we expect further slides to the downside.
If the selling pressure resumes, we expect the price to reach the trend line+1.0077 area located around it. Very close to them, 1.0070 follows and we suspect that if the sellers manage to get the price below, further selloff will follow towards 1.0050 and 1.0036 area.
On the upside, the buyers should keep the price above the trend line in order to be able to move the price towards 1.0103, very close to yesterday high. If a breakout to the upside occurs, it would mean the bullish trend could continue further towards 1.0139 and 1.0159.
There are no important headlines due to being released from Switzerland.
The buyers managed to keep the downside limited and since the price did not break below 1.2375, we’ve seen a rebound taking place yesterday. Thus far, the price is located around 1.2419, one of our resistance areas and considering that no significant selling leg down did not form until now, we expect the upside to extend. However, we advice patience as today there are plenty of inflation indicators due to being released from UK.
To describe further our technical outlook, if a breakout above, 1.2419 takes place, we might see the gains extend towards 1.2448 or 1.2498 where the top line of the triangle is also located. We expect a stronger reaction from the sellers at that point.
On the downside, if the price moves further below 1.2419 we might see a retest of 1.2376. If that will fade, 1.2340 and 1.2310 follow. Below them, 1.2242, where the bottom line of the triangle lies, could provide stronger support for the price.
- From UK, Retail Price Index figures + Producer Price Index figures + Consumer Price Index figures will be published at 08:30am.
The price reached 111.44 area yesterday, but the upside break did not occur as we expected. What happened at that point was a false break setup and the price started to trend lower after a brief penetration of that area. The selling leg down that formed continues to extend impulsively and we supect it might retest last week lows in the short term if the buyers do not manage to step in aggressively.
Looking at the 1h chart, we can’t find a single strong bullish candle and if we won’t see more than mild push backs, we expect a retest of 110.27-110.10 area. A breakout below it, would mean the bearish trend could continue further towards 109.69 and 108.70.
On the other hand, the buyers would need to overcome 110.72 and 111.12 in order to be able to retest 111.44 and 111.59. If the last two areas will fade, more gains could follow towards 112.22 area.
After a brief break below 0.7492 key support area, the price started to form an upside leg. So far, we suspect it is an accumulation of buyers and that would also mean further gains could follow to the upside. However, any impulsive selling that would drive the price below 0.7492 followed by shallow reaction from the buyers would suggest the selling pressure resumed and further downside would be on the table.
So far, the price is trading above our key level and as long as it does that, there is room for a retest of 0.7516. Above it, 0.7531 followed by 0.7545, Friday spike are next. We expect more gains to follow in the short term.
On the downside, a strong breakout and close below 0.7492 would be needed in order to shift our short term bullish bias. If that happens, yesterday low would be at risk and a breakout below it would open further room towards 0.7448 area.