Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-13-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-13-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The trend line held pretty nicely until now and yesterday, in late US session, the price rebounded sharply, edging higher after President Donald Trump suggested the Fed should keep interest rates low and warned about the impact of a strong dollar over the economy. The dollar slumped after the comments, the price reaching 1.0666 resistance area in an hour after it previously briefly broke below our trend line.
We expect the upside move to extend further in the medium term, but short term there is a strong possibility of a corrective structure building up. We expect the upside to be capped by 1.0681 area and on the downside our support area are located around 1.0662 and 1.0629. Below them, 1.0609 and the trend line follow.
On the upside, a breakout above 1.0681 area would be needed in order to open further room towards 1.0704 area and 1.0718.
- Consumer Price Index figures for Germany are due at 06:00am.
- From US, Producer Price Index figures + Initial Jobless Claims are due at 00:30pm GMT.
Opposed to the EURUSD, dollar-swiss plunged yesterday triggered also by President Trump comments and so far it seems like on the medium term a bearish mood would weigh on the price. As long as the price does not manage to break above yesterday high, we believe the downside would extend further. However, following the impulsive move we expect some profit taking in the short term and that could mean the sellers could get a better price.
So, if the price starts to rebound, we expect it to test 1.0025 area. A breakout above it would open more ground towards 1.0040 and 1.0052. Above them, the descending trend line comes into place and we expect the sellers to defend it again.
On the downside, if the impulsive move accelerates further, we should see a breakout below 1.0006 area before further slides could follow towards 0.9980 and 0.9940 area.
- From Switzerland, Producer and Import Prices are due at 07:15am.
The price finally broke on the upside of the triangle formation, backed by dollar weakness in late US session. So far, the leg up hit 1.2556 resistance area and the price is hovering around that point. Considering that the breakout took place on the upside, we expect the bullish trend to continue upwards, however, a retest of the broken channel is not excluded and the market should consolidate towards it before extending higher.
If the consolidation really takes place, the price should break again below 1.2556 area and head towards 1.2518 and top line of the triangle. We expect the buyers to step in aggressively around that point. In case there is mild reaction there, 1.2498 follows, but we expect the downside to be limited.
On the upside, there is room for a retest of 1.2589 and 1.2612, a breakout above both of them suggesting the bullish trend would extend higher.
There are no important headlines due to being released from UK today.
The downward momentum continued to advance and the price slumped below our 109.34 support, almost reaching 108.70 area. So far, the order flow is heavily biased to the sell side, the buyers being unable to generate more then four weak green candles in a row. As long as they don’t manage to cover more ground, there is still downward potential, now that short term the appetite for dollars decreased.
Technically speaking, if the market manages to hold the price above 108.70 area, there is room for rebound higher towards 109.34 and 109.69. Above them, the key resistance area around 110.15-110.27 will follow then.
On the downside, a strong breakout below 108.70, would open further room towards 107.87-107.47 area, where we expect the buyers to react strongly since it’s a weekly strong support area.
The rebound was stronger as the bullish impulsive move was accelerated by strong employment data in Australia that was released a few hours ago. The price broke higher and almost reached 0.7585 area, where we expect it to consolidate for a while. So far, considering that the last three 4h candles managed to cover move then 30 of the previous ones, the bias shifted to the buy side and we expect more gains in the medium term.
Technically speaking, if a consolidation structure starts to build up, we might see the price retracing towards 0.7585 area of 0.7544. We believe the downside should be capped by either one, as we expect more gains on the bull side. Only a breakout below yesterday lows would negate our bullish view.
On the upside, a breakout above 0.7585 area should open further ground towards 0.7614 and if the sellers do not manage to cap the upside, 0.7636 would follow next.