Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-19-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-19-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
Yesterday the euro demand skyrocketed, sending the price around 100 pips higher. It seems like the move was triggered by optimism regarding the French election that is due to take place at the end of the week. Anti-EU candidate Marine Le Pen is losing confidence ahead of the elections, as the pools suggests, that boosting risk appetite across the board. Looking at the price action structure, there is room for more upside gains, but we suggest expecting for a pullback as that could offer a higher risk/reward ratio.
So, we expect the price to retreat after yesterday impulsive run and we expect it to do so towards 1.0703-1.0690 area. We believe buyers could reenter the market and defend that area. If that does not happen, a deeper retreat towards 1.0671 or even lower towards our ascending trend line, might happen as well if the sellers manage to push the price stronger.
On the upside, if the upside momentum continues to increase, be expect the bull move to continue higher towards 1.0738 and 1.0770 area.
- From EU, Consumer Price Index figures are due to being released at 09:00am GMT.
- There are no important economic indicators due from US.
Opposed to the EURUSD, dollar-swiss broke lower yesterday, moving further from the trend line. The price reached 0.9961 support area, that we’ve mentioned in our yesterday market analysis and then started to consolidate little above it. So far the price action context suggests that there could be room for more downside but we expect a deeper retracement before any continuation would take place.
If the consolidation structure continues to build up, we expect it to extend towards 0.9992 or 1.0008 area. We believe the sellers might reenter the market in that area but in case that does not happen, further gains would follow towards the descending trend line.
On the downside, if 0.9961 and yesterday low fade, 0.9947 would be next support, while below it 0.9911 would follow.
There are no important economic news coming due from Switzerland today.
Big day for cable as the price skyrocketed almost 400 pips top tick to bottom tick yesterday, after UK’s PM Theresa May announced early election to take place in June. Following the announce, the pound soured across the board, managing to break several resistance area. Usually, after moves like this the market tends to consolidate for a considerable amount of time and we expect that to happen in the short term horizon, as long as no new important headline would be released from UK.
The bullish move ended up with an exhausted candle and then the market entered in a consolidation phase. When moves end up with a strong candle, the last candles being the largest candle in the entire trend, that could signal a reversal could follow. The best bay to trade this type of environment is to expect a pullback towards to high, in our case, and place a trade around it. The high of yesterday is located around 1.2904.
On the downside, if the consolidation structure extend further we expect it to reach 1.2796 and 1.2774, two previously broken resistance areas, that could trigger a breakout pullback setup. If the selling pressure intensifies below them, 1.2704 follows next.
There are no important economic indicators due from UK, but any important political news could spark volatility again.
The price did break below 108.60-108.72 area and since then it barely managed to consolidate towards it. Looking at the price action, it seems like the trend would advance lower, towards last week low or even lower. As long as the market does not manage to drive the price impulsively above the previously mentioned area, we believe the bears are in control and could drive the price lower.
If the selling pressure resumes, we expect a new leg down towards 108.12, last week low. A breakout below it would open further room towards 107.61 area.
On the upside, a strong breakout above 108.60-108.72 resistance area would be needed first in order to swift our bias from bearish to slightly bullish and for the price to be able to reach yesterday high or even 109.33 resistance. Above it, further ground towards 110.08 is available.
The price managed to break lower during the Asian session, trading below yesterday low around 0.7533 at the time of writing. The price action context suggests the order flow is biased to the sell side and we expect the downside pressure to continue to mount as long as the bulls do not manage to drive the price impulsively higher.
On the upside, if the price consolidated on the upside, we expect it to head towards 0.7533 area and could encounter some resistance there. If the sellers do not manage to keep the price below the area, further gains could follow towards 0.7557. If the buyers manage to drive the price above it and above yesterday high, the bull move could extend towards 0.7586.
If the selling pressure continues, the price could reach 0.7514 support area. We expect the buyers to enter at that point, but a breakout lower could expose 0.7491 and 0.7474 support area.