Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-21-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-21-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The price continued its bull run yesterday, extending higher and reaching 1.0777 area, tested it twice and started to trend lower. It seems like a small double top formation formed on the chart, suggesting the sellers were determined to defend the area around 1.0777. We expect the downside to continue today as traders would like to neutralize any euro position ahead of the French Presidential election scheduled for Sunday.
If the buyers manage to push the price higher, they might encounter resistance around 1.0736 swing high, while a strong breakout above it, could send the market towards yesterday high. However, we expect the upside to be limited, any significant bull spike could be treated as selling opportunity.
On the downside, the sellers would need to break below 1.0698-1.0690 support area in order to open further ground towards 1.0671. Below it, the ascending trend line follows as support.
- From Germany, three Markit PMI indicators are due to being released at 07:30am GMT. Current Account figures + Markit PMI indicators for the EU are due at 08:00am.
- From US, Markit PMI indicators will be published at 01:45 pm + Existing Home Sales figures at 02:00pm.
As opposed to the EURUSD, dollar-swiss formed a double bottom yesterday, around 0.9947 support area. The momentum was strong enough to drive the price towards 0.9990 resistance area where the price is located at the time of writing. Looking ahead, we expect the bullish move to extend higher today, as caution weighs on investors ahead of the French election, favoring the demand for US dollars.
Technically speaking, the bull would need to drive the price strongly above 0.9990 in order to reach 1.0008 resistance. Above it, 1.0027 followed by the descending trend line could cap the upside if reached.
On the downside, if the price would not break above 0.9990, a retreat towards 0.9967 could take place, while a breakout lower could open further room towards 0.9947, where the market rebounded yesterday.
There are no important economic indicators due to being released from Switzerland today.
After the stunning 400 pips bull run on Tuesday, the market continues to consolidate, having formed two inside bars on the daily chart. Considering that the bull move ended up with an exhausted candle, the last candle being the largest in the entire trend, we believe that could signal a reversal in under way, but, in order for that order flow to swift takes time, that’s why we are seeing this consolidation structure. We expect the price to head lower in the short and medium term.
At the time of writing the price is located around 1.2796, monthly key area and the price would need to start bouncing above it in order to be able to reach 1.2808 resistance. A breakout above it would open further ground towards 1.2830, where the market rejected yesterday.
If the market breaks below 1.2796, further slides could follow towards 1.2774, while a breakout below it, would mean the bearish leg could extend towards 1.2728 and 1.2705.
- From UK, Retail Sales figures are due to being released at 08:30am.
The consolidation structure extended higher yesterday, after the buyers treated 108.72 as support. The move extended above the short term high around 109.21 and reached 109.33 resistance area, where the upside was capped. As long as the price action stays below the level, a short term bearish bias weighs on the pair, while an upside breakout could send the price further towards new highs.
Technically speaking, if the price touches 109.33, the sellers could regard that as a selling opportunity and start a new leg down. If the impulse is strong, further slides could follow towards 108.72, where the buyers entered impulsively the market yesterday, or 108.60 support, where a short term ascending trend line is also located.
On the upside, a breakout above 109.33 resistance could open further room towards 109.89 and 110.08. We expect the upside to be capped at that point, as the sellers could reenter aggressively, considering that is a key resistance area.
After touching 0.7491 support area, the buyers managed to drive the price around 60 pips higher, breaching 0.7527-0.7533 resistance area. So far, the sellers managed to keep the price below the area, but considering that the bull move was strong, we expect a new reaction from the buyers that could end up with a breakout above yesterday high and an extension higher. If the sellers defend the resistance area, the selling pressure could resume.
A breakout above 0.7527-0.7533 and yesterday high would mean the buyers are in control of the market and could push the price towards 0.7557, where another resistance area is located. Above it, 0.7581 follows.
On the downside, if the sellers defend the 0.7527-0.7533 resistance, we expect the price to head towards 0.7514, while a breakout below it would open further room towards 0.7491 where the bullish move started yesterday. Lower, 0.7474 follows as support.