Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-24-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-24-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The first round of the French Presidential election ended with an expected Emmanuel Macron victory, followed by Marine Le Pen. In terms of the euro-dollar the market gapped higher around 180 pips, opening at 1.0895 level. Since then, we’ve seen a correction phase taking place, some of the gains being erased, as usually the market tends to fill the weekend gaps. However, in this case, considering that the election outcome is positive for the euro and favors risk sentiment, we expect the price to rebound higher in the short term.
If the consolidation structure, continues to advance to the downside, it might encounter buyers around 1.0824 area. If sellers manage to drive the market even lower, 1.0783-1.0776 area will follow next.
On the upside, the buyers would need to overcome 1.0851 resistance in order to open further ground towards 1.0904, which is the high of the day. A breakout above it could signal more upside gains towards 1.0952 area.
- From Germany, IFO- Current Assessment, IFO- Expectations and IFO- Business Climate are due to being released at 08:00am GMT, all being expected to come out with a mild improvement.
- There are no significant economic indicators due to being released from US.
As opposed to the euro-dollar, the price gapped lower, this time the gap was smaller, around 40 pips and also the market managed to fill it until the time of writing, being in the positive territory on a daily basis. Considering that a breakout below last week lows took place, we expect at least a bearish pullback before the upside would continue. Considering that we expect the EURUSD to go up in the following days, we have a slightly bearish bias on the pair.
Looking at the price action structure, the market open lower and then started to climb impulsively, five out of the last six 1h candles closing green with decent gains. If the bullish momentum continues to increase, we might see the price heading towards 0.9991 or 1.0007 resistance areas, while a breakout above them would open the door towards the descending trend line, where the sellers could step in again.
On the downside, buyers could reenter the market, if the price pulls back towards 0.9953 or 0.9939, last week low. A breakout below them, could mean a new retest of today low around 0.9906 might happen.
The activity had not been that intense for cable until now, although a small bullish gap appeared on the chart. So far, the price is still in a consolidation phase following last Tuesday huge bullish impulsive move that was generated by UK PM’s announcement of an election taking place on June 8th. The consolidation phase might continue as long as the price does not manage to clearly break above the triangle pattern that we’ve spotted.
If a breakout above it occurs, it would mean the buyers most likely are willing to start a new bullish impulsive move and that could send the price towards 1.2864 resistance area. Above it, last week high around 1.2904, follows as resistance. If the sellers won’t be able to cap the upside, we believe the bullish trend might extend towards 1.3000 area.
On the downside, if both 1.2774 and Friday low around 1.2756 fails to provide enough support for the price, more slides are expected towards 1.2727 and 1.2672 area.
- There are no important economic indicators due to being released from UK, today.
Dollar-yen also gapped higher by 120 pips, probably due to investors dumping the safe heaven yen, after the French Presidential election results increased the appetite for risk. Considering that the market opened above 110.08 key resistance area, if we see a daily close above, more upside gains could follow in the short and medium term. However, a daily close below it, could signal a further retracement and filling of the weekend gap might happen.
At the time of writing, the price sits little below 110.08 resistance area and if the sellers manage to drive it above the level, 110.46, today high, might follow next. A breakout above it would open further room towards 111.44 area.
On the downside, if 110.08 caps the upside and sellers step in around it, we might see further price retreat towards 109.86, recent swing low. Below it, 109.48, April 20th high, could follow, while a breakout below it, could mean the gap is very likely to be filled, the price heading towards 109.21 support area.
Aussie also gapped higher by 28 pips, but the gap was filled shortly after. So far, the price action structure suggests the bulls are in control of the market, since new higher highs and higher lows are generated + the price is support by the 20 EMA. As long as the context does not change, we expect more upside gains in the following days. If that happens, the sellers could drive the market lower towards last week lows.
The price sits little below 0.7556 resistance area at the time of writing and a breakout above it, could signal the buyers are willing to drive the price higher, towards 0.7573, today’s high or even higher towards 0.7586, where our next resistance area is located. Above it, 0.7609 will follow.
On the downside, a breakout below 0.7534 would be needed in order to confirm that the short term bullish momentum decreased substantially and further slides towards 0.7514 and 0.7492 could follow next.