Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-26-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-26-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
Following a two day consolidation phase, the price managed to break higher yesterday, almost reaching the 1.0952 resistance area. We’ve also drawn an ascending price channel and it seems like the top line of it comes very close to that resistance. Considering that the upside move had been strong in size we expect the price to briefly break the channel and then resume the downside.
If the scenario that we’ve described happens, a false break around 1.0952 might take place in the short term. Sellers should enter around that area and drive the price lower, towards 1.0904, our first support and key area. Below it, we have 1.0876 and 1.0851 standing next to cap the downside.
On the upside, if the bullish momentum continues to build up and the buyers manage to extend the trend higher, outside the channel, we believe that could open more room towards 1.1046 resistance area.
- There are no important headlines due to being released from EU.
- For US, the calendar is also very thin, only the Mortgage Applications will be released at 11:00am. Besides, President Trump is due to announce details about new fiscal measures today, so watch any headlines regarding that event.
After the weekend gap was covered in early Monday, the price started to consolidate and slowly started to shift again towards the bearish side. At the time of writing, it is located very close to the place where it started the week, and a retest of the low around 0.9906 seems inevitable. Increased appetite for riskier assets generated by the results of the French election had made investors to dump the dollar in favor of other instruments. As long as the political uncertainty does not rise again, the current trend could continue further.
Technically speaking, our first support area is located around 0.9906, currently weekly low. A breakout below that point could signal that the trend would extend further towards 0.9880 area. Below it, 0.9835 and 0.9810 will follow.
On the upside, the buyers would need to overcome both 0.9939 and 0.9957 in order to be able to open more room towards 0.9991 and 1.0007 resistance areas. So far, the sell side is favored, the price action structure suggesting that the buyers are unable to regain control over the market.
- From Switzerland, UBS Consumption Indicator is due at 06:00am and Zew-Survey Expectation will come out at 08:00am.
Opposed to both EURUSD and USDCHF, cable remained in a consolidation mode even yesterday. However, we’ve seen some bullish momentum starting to build up as the price climbed towards 1.2840 area and no significant bearish response took place until now. As long that does not happen, we believe there is room for more upside gains in the short term, towards and even above last week high.
At the time of writing, the price is located around 1.2840 area, a short term resistance area and the order flow seems to be biased to the buy side as the sellers do not seem to be able to generate a downside move. As long that scenario is in play, we believe an upside breakout will take place and the price will head towards 1.2868 and 1.2904, last week high.
On the downside, if the sellers reenter the market and are able to drive the price lower, the price could head towards 1.2796 and 1.2774 key area, where the downside was capped for the last few days.
- There are no important headlines due to being released from UK today.
The yen weakened further yesterday, breaking above Monday high around 110.47 the reason being also the run from safe heaven assets across the globe. So far, the order seems heavily biased to the buy side and the move could extend further in the short and medium term if the riskier assets remain attractive and if political uncertainty does no rise at high levels again. If that happens, we believe the yen would start to gain momentum.
To draw our technical view, if some profit taking will occur, the price could consolidate towards 110.97 area or 110.73 support area. Below them, 110.47 follows, Monday high and could trigger a breakout pullback setup.
On the upside, if the bullish trend continues to extend higher, 111.44 could be a next potential target, followed by 111.66, where we expect the sellers to react strongly, since it is an area where the market responded in the past.
Following the CPI figures release a few hours ago, aussie continued to slide after the data, as a whole, came weaker than expected. However, looking at the price action on the 1h chart, we see a strong bearish candle followed a small little candle. Usually, situations like that suggest that a retracement of even reversal could take place shortly so we believe the losses that followed the news release could be covered at least partially.
So, if the buyers start to build up, the price should begin to move towards 0.7537 area, where our first resistance area is located. If the sellers do not respond to it, the price could break above the spike and reach 0.7556. Above it, more gains are expected towards 0.7586 area.
On the downside, if the bearish move continues to extend, 0.7492 and 0.7477 could be potential next targets and we expect the buyers to have a stronger reaction around those areas.