Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-27-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-27-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
After reaching again 1.0949 area and forming some sort of a double bottom, the price started to head lower, reaching 1.0876 support. After a brief breakout below it, the order flow reversed and a new leg up started to unfold. Considering that yesterday price action did not break below currently weekly low, we assume that the buyers are in control of the market and they could push the price higher as today we have an economic calendar packed with a lot of data. If the euro will be favored, our assumption could materialize.
To draw our technical picture, the price managed to break above 1.0904 swing point and now looks poised to reach 1.0922 short term resistance. A breakout above it would mean a new retest of 1.0949 could follow. A breakout above it would expose the top line of our ascending price channel.
On the downside, if a breakout below 1.0904 happens, that could trigger more selling order, pushing the price towards 1.0876 area. Below it, 1.0851 and 1.0819, currently the weekly low, will follow.
- From the EU, Services Sentiment + Consumer Confidence + Industrial Confidence + Business Climate are due at 10:00am GMT. At 11:45 we have the ECB Interest Rate decision followed by a press conference. Also, some inflation figures from Germany at 00:30pm.
- From US, Durable Goods Orders figures are due also at 00:30pm GMT.
The price managed to rebound yesterday, reaching the 0.9955 resistance area and after a brief breakout, the selling pressure resumed pushing the price lower again. Looking at the price action structure, the order flow is heavily biased towards the sell side as the sellers seem to be in control. Also, you can notice the relation to the 20 EMA. Each time the price gets towards it, a rejection lower occurs, suggesting that some of the market participants are treating it as a dynamic resistance area.
Technically speaking, if the bearish impulsive move continues, we expect it to reach 0.9906 area, while a breakout below it would open further ground towards 0.9880 area. Lower, we have the 0.9835 support followed by an ascending trend line.
We expect the upside to be limited, buyers should push the price above 0.9953 area in order to be able to put pressure on 0.9968, yesterday high. Above it, 0.9991 will follow.
- From Switzerland, we have Trade Balance, Imports and Exports coming due at 06:00am GMT.
It looks like the consolidation phase ended yesterday and the price looks set to continue in the direction that it started last week when the UK PM announced an early election in June. So far, the price managed to break upside the range between 1.2840 and 1.2774 and we believe that is signaling the buyers regained again control over the order flow and we could see more upside gains in the short term.
The price managed to reach 1.2864 resistance area at the time of writing and a close above it would mean the buyers would put pressure on 1.2904 resistance area and last week high A breakout above it would open more upside towards 1.2979 area.
On the downside, we believe the sellers will have a small impact and we expect the buyers to defend the trend by buying the pair around 1.2840 and 1.2796 support area.
As long as the currently weekly lows are not breached, the bias remains on the buy side.
The upside trend continued to be extend higher throughout the day, yesterday, but all the daily gains were lost in the last hours of the US session. We believe that was due to heavy sellers parked around 111.66, a key resistance area that we’ve mentioned in one of our market commentaries. It seems like the sellers regained short term control over the market, as the 4h bearish engulfing candle suggests it.
We expect the downside move to extend lower towards 110.97 area, where it found support yesterday. A breakout below it and below yesterday low, would open more ground towards 110.73 and 110.47 area.
On the upside, the buyers would need to overcome 111.44 area in order to retest again 111.66 key resistance, where the selling started yesterday. Above it, 112.13 will follow next.
- From Japan, we have Unemployment figures + some inflation figures due to being released at 11:50pm GMT.
The selling impulsive move that started after the release of the CPI figures in Australia extended throughout the day, managing to break below 0.7492 and 0.7477 key support area. Also, at the time of writing, the market seems to rebound as the buyers managed to push the price back up above 0.7477 area. Looking at the big picture, over the long term, the sellers seem to be in control as they manage to create new lows. But, the buyers are willing to buy every dip so a short term rebound might take place as long as the price keeps trading above 0.7477.
If the bullish move extends higher, it could find resistance around 0.7492 and 0.7514. Above it, 0.7532 will follow and we expect the upside to be limited, the probability of the price reaching that point being very low, in our view.
On the downside, a new breakout below 0.7477 area would be needed to confirm that the sellers regained control over the market. If that happens, yesterday low around 0.7454 will be put to the test and a breakout below it would open further room towards 0.7415 area.