Daily Forex forecast analysis 04-28-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 04-28-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
It looks like the order is shifting towards the sell side as the buyers were unable to overcome 1.0949 area yesterday. Latest comments from ECB President Mario Draghi put pressure on the euro, after he said he is not so optimistic about inflation picking up in the euro area. Following his conference the euro erased all the gains and managed to break Wednesday low. Also, the relation to the 20 EMA seem to have changed, the price currently trading below treating it as resistance.
We expect the sellers to continue to gain more ground and a breakout below 1.0851 support area to occur today and we expect the sellers to be counteracted by the buyers around 1.0819 and 1.0776.
On the upside, the buyers should manage to push the price above 1.0876 in order to be able to drive it towards 1.0904 and 1.0922. A breakout above the lather, would confirm the bullish trend could continue further.
- From the EU, the most important indicators that will be released are: GDP for France at 05:30am GMT and CPI for the EU at 09:00am.
- From US, GDP figures are due to being released at 00:30pm GMT.
The market continues to trade in a tight range having no directional bias at the time of writing. We expect the conditions to change as today we have GDP figures from US to be released later and also , it is the last day of the month, which could spark huge volatility. Depending on how good or bad the figures would be, the trend would also develop in that direction. Wait until the market digests the news and then search for opportunities.
On the upside, a breakout above 0.9953 and 0.9968 would be needed in order to open further ground towards 0.9914. Above it , we expect the price to head towards the descending trend line.
On the downside, the sellers should manage to break below 0.9918 and 0.9906 in order to continue the downside move towards 0.9880 and 0.9835 area.
- From Switzerland, KOF Leading Indicator will be published at 07:00am.
The market managed to reach last week high around 1.2904, yesterday and now we can see choppy trading around that point. That could happen because the sellers treat that area as resistance, considering that the price stalled around it last week. We believe a short term breakout below the area could happen, if the buyers do not manage to continue to move the price higher impulsively. Also, we have GDP figures due to being released from UK today, and that could also influence the short term trend as well.
On the upside, if the sellers are limited and the buyers manage to keep the price above 1.2904 area, we expect the bullish trend to extend further towards 1.2979 and 1.3057 area.
On the downside, if the price moves below 1.2904 impulsively, that could spark further selling towards 1.2864 and 1.2840. Lower, 1.2796 and 1.2774 follow and there is also the currently low of the week.
- From UK, GDP figures and Mortgage Approvals are due to being released at 08:30am.
The price action suggests that indeed, 111.44-111.66 area is a strong resistance area, since the buyers were unable to drive the trend above it. On the contrary, the sellers seem to be in control right now, managing to reject the price yesterday after it reached 111.44. We expect the price to extend on the downside in the short term. Also, the economic indicators that will be released today could influence the trend if the actual figures will deviate from the forecasts.
Technically speaking, as long as the price stays below 111.44 area, we believe there is room for a retest of 110.97, while a breakout below it could open further ground towards 110.32 and 110.45. There we expect a stronger reaction from the buyers since is located around a strong demand zone.
On the upside, a strong breakout above 111.44 and 111.66 would be needed in order to shift our short term bias from bearish to bullish. If that happens the bull trend could extend higher towards 112.13 area.
After treating 0.7477 as resistance, aussie broke lower yesterday, reaching 0.7454 and 0.7442 levels, that we’ve mentioned in our yesterday market commentary. Also, our assumption proved to be correct since the selling leg down stalled around the lather and then the market started to retrace higher. The bullish move do not seem to be strong enough and the selling pressure could resume today. The buyers would need to step in more aggressively if they want to be able to reverse the trend.
On the upside, we would like to see reduced selling influence and a strong breakout above 0.7477 and 0.7492 area. If the buyers manage to hold the price above them, we expect more gains towards 0.7514 and 0.7532 area.
On the downside, if the selling pressure resumes, 0.7454 and 0.7442 could be put to the test again, while a breakout below would open more ground towards 0.7415 area.