Daily Forex forecast analysis 08-31-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 08-31-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro continued to weaken against the US dollar yesterday, as the GDP Preliminary release for the second quarter from the US came out above expectations at 3.0%. The sellers are gaining substantial ground and given the fact that the buyers reaction had been very weak for the last two days, the trend could extend lower. The end of week will be very active, today being the last day of the month and tomorrow we have some important employment data due.
Technically speaking the price it trading impulsively below the 30min chart 20 EMA, having touched in only three times in the last few days. If the impulsive move continues, 1.1863 and 1.1828 are future targets, while below them 1.1795 is the one that follows.
If a retracement takes place, 1.1893 and the 20 EMA could act as a barrier in front of the buyers, while a breakout above the EMA could open more upside ground towards 1.1917 and 1.1945.
- From Germany, Retail Sales figures are due at 06:00am, followed by employment figures at 08:00am. EU CPI figures will follow at 09:00am.
- From US, Personal Spending, Personal Income and Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index figures are due at 00:30pm. Pending Home Sales will follow at 02:00pm.
The US dollar continued to recover against the swiss franc yesterday, breaking above the 4h chart 20 EMA, confirming that the buyers resumed impulsively and are willing the drive the price up. As we mentioned above, there are some key data coming out today as well from the US, followed by tomorrow round of employment data, so there should be decent volatility. The current leg is impulsive enough to make us believe it can continue forward.
The price is approaching the 0.9657 area, where some short-term resistance might be found by the buyers. If they manage to pass through it, further upside gains are expected towards 0.9692. As long as the price keeps trading above the 20 EMA, the bias remains towards the bull side.
On the other hand, if a retracement starts to build up, if could head towards 0.9618-0.9608, while a breakout lower will expose the 4h chart 20 EMA and 0.9577. We expect the buyers to defend that area, if reached.
Cable had been hovering around the 4h chart 20 EMA yesterday, as the economic data from UK and US were convergent, both set of indicators being positive for sterling as US dollar. We expect to see how the market will treat the 20 EMA in the end. If the buyers will form a bottom around it, the upside could resume, while on the other hand, if a breakout lower takes place, the US dollar might be favored and the selling pressure could resume.
At the time of writing, the price is located between 1.2918 and 1.2904 and below the 4h chart 20 EMA. If a breakout lower takes place that will put pressure on yesterday low and 1.2873. Below that area, 1.2847 could follow then.
If the bull manage to find momentum again, the price could rebound above the 20 EMA, towards yesterday high. Above that point, 1.2952 and last week high could be reached, while a break above them could open further ground towards 1.3000 area.
Dollar continues to recover against the yen as well, the momentum continuing to be high. Looking at the bull move from the 4h chart, you can see that the buyers had been clearly in control, with most of the candles closing green. Only two red small candles can be seen, confirming that the sellers are almost inexistent thus far. A retracement lower is not excluded but we believe the move has the potential to continue forward.
During the Asian session the price broke above yesterday high and it looks like the price is headed towards the 110.77 and 110.95 resistance zone, where sellers should become more active. Above that area, 111.46 level is the one that follows.
On the downside, if the price starts to retrace, it could head towards 110.24 and 110.02. Below, 109.84 follows and as you can see we expect the downside to be limited due to the fact that the leg up is very impulsive.
The price relation towards the 20 EMA had changed yesterday, as the GDP figure from the US came out better than expected and the market rushed into US dollars as a result. Since the selling pressure resumed impulsively, the buyers could suffer in the short-tern, as we have other key US data coming due today and tomorrow and there are some positive expectations around them. As long as the price keeps trading below the EMA, sellers should be in control.
On the downside, yesterday low and support level 0.7891 could cap the downside again, while a breakout and close below it would mean further downside gains might follow towards 0.7870 and 0.7840 support.
On the upside, 0.7919 managed to generate some selling pressure and sellers should react to it, if it will be reached again. Above it and the 20 EMA, 0.7951 and 0.7962, key swing points could be seen as new selling points by the sellers.