Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-01-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-01-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
Even though the euro continued on the downside against the US dollar on the first part of the day, yesterday, we’ve seen some relief during the US session as the pressure was again on the dollar since the economic data was not positive. Looking ahead, today we have another round of important data coming due from the US, this time the focus turns on the employment sector and we expect volatility to rise as usual, after the release.
The upside was capped by 1.1917 resistance and we’ve seen some reaction from the sellers there. If the downside will continue to extend, 1.1863 and 1.1828 could be reached again, while better than expected figures from the US could mean yesterday low will be breached.
On the upside, if the 1.1917 resistance will fade, further gains might follow towards 1.1945-1.1955 resistance area, where sellers might rejoin the downside. Above that area, 1.1987 is expected to cap the upside then.
- Markit Manufacturing PMI is due at 07:55am for Germany and at 08:00am for the EU.
- At 00:30pm GMT, NFP and Unemployment Rate are due to being released. ISM Prices Paid and ISM Manufacturing PMI will follow at 02:00pm.
We’ve seen some downside pressure yesterday after a false break above 0.9657 resistance. A retracement lower was expected, since from a statistical point of view, V-shaped bottoms occur very rare (less than 20% of the time) and since there had been a downside trend in play for a decent amount of time. Looking ahead, the employment data from the US should determine the tone for a few days, as they generally generate huge volatility.
So far the price managed to find short-term support around 0.9577 level. If the selling pressure resumes, we expect the sellers to put pressure again on that level and if a breakout lower takes place that could open further ground towards 0.9545 and 0.9525 area.
On the upside, 0.9608-0.9618 could act a resistance zone and absorb some of the buying orders. If the buyers managed to overcome that area, further gains are expected towards 0.9657, where the selling wave started yesterday and 0.9692.
- From Switzerland, Real Retail Sales are due at 07:15am GMT.
Cable experienced some choppy trading yesterday, as the price moved above and below the 4h chart 20 EMA. Thus far, the price action structure suggests that there is a bottoming formation in play, but if the dollar would start to gain significant ground again, the downside could resume and last week low could be under pressure again. On the other hand, if dollar weakness will prevail, sterling could benefit from it.
The 20 EMA could act as resistance and new sellers might enter around it. If that happens, 1.2873 and yesterday low could be reached again. Below we have 1.2847, key swing point which should manage to cap the downside short-term.
On the upside, if the price breaks above the 20 EMA again, 1.2952 could be reached, while a breakout above it would mean a further continuation towards 1.2998-1.3013 might be under way.
- From UK, Markit Manufacturing PMI is due to being released at 08:30am GMT.
The US dollar retraced lower against the yen as well, yesterday, almost reaching the 109.84 key area, were buyers started to move the price upwards again. So far, the price is consolidating below the 20 EMA and we expect trading activity to remain subdued before the employment figures from the US will be released later in the US session. If the numbers will be positive, the upside will resume, while if the numbers will disappoint, the downward leg could extend further.
On the upside, the buyers should encounter short-term resistance around the 20 EMA and 110.24, while a breakout on the upside should open further ground towards 110.60 resistance, where the selling leg started. Above that area, 110.93 follows.
If the selling pressure will persist, 109.84 could be reached and a breakout below it could open further downside potential towards 109.61 and 109.30. If the dollar would be again under huge pressure, those levels could be breached as well.
As the price broke below the 20 EMA it continued to extend lower, but after reached the 0.7870 support area, the upside resumed sharply, as the Aussie was supported by weak US economic data. Thus far the price lies above the EMA and if the employment data from the US won’t be dollar supportive, the upside could extend further. On the other, if the dollar will be favored, renewed selling pressure will emerge then.
The upside should be capped by 0.7951-0.7962, since the price already reacted to it a few hours ago. If the sellers won’t be able to keep the price below it, we expect the upside leg to extend towards 0.7985 and higher towards 0.8042.
On the downside, the selling should resume impulsively below the 20 EMA in order to confirm that the order flow shifted towards the sell side. 0.7919 and 0.7891 could be short-term support levels, while below them, 0.7870 and 0.7840 could follow.