Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-04-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-04-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
We’ve seen some choppy trading activity on Friday, after the employment figures from the US came below expectations, but despite that, the US dollar recovered after a short deep. The order flow seems to be biased towards the sell side since the price is trading again below the 1h chart 20 EMA and weakness could continue during the following days. Today we have the Labor Day in America so trading activity should remain subdued.
As long as the price keeps trading below the 20 EMA, we expect the sellers to try to put pressure on 1.1828, where last week low is also located. A clear breakout below that zone could mean the dollar will continue to advance and the price reach 1.1771 or 1.1712 support.
On the upside, we expect sellers to react around the 20 EMA and around 1.1891-1.1908 resistance zone. A breakout above could mean further gains would be expected towards the Friday spike around 1.1980 area. Above it, 1.2042 could follow.
- From EU, we have some PPI figures due at 09:00am GMT.
Even though the dollar suffered a little dip, following the release of NFP and Unemployment Rate from the US, which disappointed, the price ended up higher, erasing all the loses. We expect to see if the market would be influenced by the economic figures in the following days. If that happens, Friday low could be put under pressure again, while on the other hand, if the market participants will ignore the news, further upside potential lies ahead.
The reaction after the NFP release had been pretty impulsive on the upside and if it will continue to extend higher, we expect it to head into 0.9661 or 0.9687, where sellers might respond strongly. Above those levels, 0.9764 is the one that follows.
On the downside, if the pressure on the dollar resumes, in case a breakout below the 1h chart 20 EMA takes place, 0.9586 followed by Friday low could be reached. We expect the downside to be capped short-term by 0.9526 area.
Pound spiked on the upside and it was one of the most favored after the employment figures were released from the US, the price managing the reach and briefly break the 1.2978 area. The downside resumed since the data that came afterwards supported the dollar. Since a higher high was formed, that confirms that the buyers were able to dominate the sellers and as long as the downside will be limited there is room for additional upside gains.
If the buying pressure will resume, we expect the price to reach and put pressure on 1.2978 and Friday high. A breakout above those points will mean additional bullish gains might follow towards 1.3028-1.3049 resistance zone, where sellers might react strongly.
On the downside, if the retracement leg that started on Friday will continue to extend, the 4h chart 20 EMA backed by the 1.2917 could act as a barrier in front of the sellers and absorb their orders. Below it, a continuation towards last week low is very likely.
- From UK, PMI Construction is due to being released at 08:30am GMT.
The US dollar slumped towards 109.84 and 109.61 support levels and quickly resumed the upside against the yen on Friday, ending the day higher, even though the market was taken by surprise by the employment figures which came out below expectations. As long as the price will continue to trade above the 4h chart 20 EMA, we expect the upside to extend towards last week high or higher. On the other, hand, if the dollar pressure will resume, Friday low could potentially be reached again.
On the upside, our first resistance area is located around 110.60-110.77 zone, where selling activity should be significant. If the buyers will manage to overcome it and drive the price above it, further gains are expected to come towards 111.46 area.
On the downside, the 4h chart 20 EMA followed by 109.84 and 109.61 might be reached if the selling pressure resumes. We expect support around Friday low, while a breakout lower should open further room for the sellers towards 109.30 area.
The Aussie was also a big gainer against the US dollar on Friday. The price climbed towards 0.7995, stopped on a dime below it and then consolidated on the upside. Looking at the overall price action structure, it seems like the buyers are pushing stronger than the sellers and a continuation higher might be seen in the short and medium term. On the long term, the bullish trend is still intact, since no significant selling occurred thus far.
As long as the price is support by the 4h chart 20 EMA, we expected the buyers to continue to set the tone and manage to put pressure again on the 0.7995 resistance. In case a breakout above it takes place that could mean further upside gains are expected towards 0.8042 resistance.
On the downside, buyers should react towards the 0.7962 support, while below that the 20 EMA followed, by the 0.7919 will follow. A breach of that zone would suggest a weakening of the bullish structure and further selling might follow towards 0.7891 and 0.7870 support levels.