Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-05-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-05-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro ticked higher yesterday on thin volume, considering that it was the first day of the day and there was a bank holiday in the US. Since the employment numbers disappointed on Friday and now that the between the US and North Korea had arisen again, the US dollar might weaken further against the euro. Also, there are raising concerns around a US government shutdown as the debt limit had been reached again.
Technically speaking, the price is trading again above the 4h chart 20 EMA, however, not far away from it. If the buyers will manage to build up further momentum, we expect a breakout above yesterday high to take place and further continuation towards 1.1980 and 1.2042 area.
On the downside, if the sellers will treat the EMA as a pivoting point and enter again around it, 1.1891 is our first short-term support. Below it, 1.1828 and 1.1771, could follow, if the dollar will manage to gain more momentum.
- Markit PMI Services and Markit PMI Composite are due at 07:55am for Germany and at 08:00am for the EU.
- From the US, we have some Fed Officials speeches throughout the day and the Factory Orders figure at 02:00pm GMT.
The swiss franc benefited again from its safe haven status and managed to gains significant ground against the dollar yesterday. The move continued today during the Asian session and the price had reached Friday low an hour prior to the time of writing. The price action structure suggests that the sellers are driving the order flow thus far, considering that we see new lower lows and lower highs and as long it will continue to do so, the US dollar should continue to be under pressure.
Our first support area is located around the Friday low at 0.9543, where we’ve seen some reaction recently. If the sellers manage to push the price below it, we expect 0.9526 and 0.9498 to be reached then.
On the upside, buyers should have limited impact and we expect the 1h chart 20 EMA, backed by the 0.9574 resistance level, to cap the upside and absorb all buying order. However, if an upside breach takes place, 0.9591 and 0.9616 will follow then.
- From Switzerland, CPI figures are due to being released at 07:15am GMT.
Mild trading activity for cable as well until now, as the liquidity is still building up, following the extended weekend. The price retraced lower, however, reaching the 4h chart 20 EMA, where we’ve seen it consolidating for the last 13 hours or so. Looking ahead, if the buyers will see the area as a good zone to buy, the upside could resume, while if the sellers will continue to push the price on the downside, they could manage to gain more ground.
If the selling pressure will get impulsive, 1.2917 is our first short-term support and it should fade, opening more selling ground towards 1.2878 and 1.2851. The lather should be interesting to watch as the buyers could treat it as a buying opportunity.
On the upside, 1.2945 is the first line of defense in front of the buyers, while above it, 1.2978 will follow. We’ve seen several reactions around it, but if the buyers manage to overcome last week high, further gains towards 1.3030 area will follow then.
- From UK, Markit Services PMI is due at 08:30am GMT.
The yen gapped higher against the US dollar yesterday, as we’ve seen the pair opening lower yesterday and also the move continued throughout the day, confirming that there was significant pressure to the downside. Friday low had been cleared and there had been little reaction from the buyers thus far, showing that the buying interest is reduced for now. Looking at the price action context, we expect the sellers to continue to be in control in the short-term.
If the selling pressure will continue to drive the price on the downside, we expect it to reach 109.30, short-term support area, while a breakout below it should open further ground for sellers towards 108.83 and 108.60, where buying activity should become more intense.
On the upside, buyers should have limited impact from the point the price is located right now. We expect 109.38 and 109.54 to act as resistance area, while above those two, 109.82 should cap the upside further.
The Aussie retreated lower towards the 4h-chart 20 EMA yesterday, but today we’ve seen significant reaction from the buyers thus far. The price resumed the upside and as long the buyers will manage to maintain the current rhythm, a new retest of Friday high might be underway. On the other hand, an impulsive breakout below the EMA will suggest the upside weakened and further selling might follow afterwards.
As long as the bulls are still in control, we expect the price to continue to float above the EMA and attempt a new retest of 0.7992 resistance area. A breakout above that zone will mean further gains to the upside will follow towards 0.8042 and 0.8064, where sellers could try to defend those levels more aggressively.
On the downside, sellers should first break below the 20 EMA and the 0.7940 support area, to be able to reach the 0.7919. Below it, 0.7891 could follow then and buying activity should become significant around it.