Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-07-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-07-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro did not manage to break impulsively on the upside yesterday, instead in hovered around the 1h chart 20 EMA. It seems like the market expects the ECB Interest Rate Decision and ECB President Mario Draghi speech, in order to find out more clues about the next decisions the central bank will take. If the bank will give hints that it will start to taper its QE program, we expect the euro to rally, while a cautious approach could sent the euro lower, short-term.
With regards to the technical analysis, we expect the price to hover around the 20 EMA, with no directional bias, until the press conference. If the price will breach lower, 1.1907 and 1.1895 are expected to act as short-term support levels.
On the upside, in case the ECB will deliver, we expect the price to surge on the upside, break above yesterday high and move forward towards 1.1979 and 1.2042, where selling activity could spark again since we have a weekly high there.
- GDP figures for the EU are due at 09:00am, while the ECB Press Conference is scheduled as usual at 00:30pm GMT.
- From US, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs are due at 00:30pm, as well.
The dollar-swiss is kind of like building a bearish parabolic structure, which can be visible from the 1h chart and we can see that the price relation towards the 20 EMA had not changed yet, the sellers treating it as resistance. For the last 12 hours or so, it has been trading little above the EMA, in a low volume environment, but we expect volatility to pick up, especially in the second part of the day, when we have some key events.
Getting back towards the technical analysis, if the selling pressure resumes and an impulsive candle that breaches the 20 EMA on the downside will form, we expect the downside to resume and 0.9543 and 0.9525 to be reached. A breakout below yesterday low could mean 0.9498 could be under pressure then.
On the upside, if the buyers will treat the 20 EMA as support and start to build a base for an upside leg, today spike at 0.9591 can be reached again, while a breakout above will mean 0.9614 resistance could follow.
We expected cable to start to retrace around the 1.3028 resistance level, but the buyers managed to push the price above it and also close it there. However, the upside momentum had not been so strong after the break and the retracement is still not excluded. As a whole, the price still trades above the 4h chart 20 EMA, which shows that the bulls are still in control. As long as that happens, we expect more upside gains to follow.
If the price retraces lower, it can head towards 1.3028, where buyers should attempt to defend the area. A breach lower will open further ground towards 1.2998+ 20 EMA, backed by the 1.2977. We expect the buyers to step in around that area and the selling pressure to be absorbed.
On the upside, if the buyers will continue to push the price higher, yesterday high around 1.3081 can be put under pressure, while above it, 1.3110 and 1.3155 can follow and sellers could treat them as new entry points.
- From UK, Halifax House Prices are due at 07:30am GMT.
The dollar bottomed out against the yen yesterday, after finding short-term support around the 108.49 area. The price broke above the 1h chart 20 EMA and treated it as support then. For the last few hours the price had been retracing towards the 20 EMA. If it will be treated as support and new buyers will come in, the upside could resume, while an impulsive break below it would mean yesterday low could be put under pressure again.
If the buying pressure resumes around the 20 EMA, we expect buyers to encounter short-term resistance around 109.19 and 109.37, where the upside was capped yesterday. A breach above it could send the price towards 109.55.
On the downside, if the selling pressure will continue below the 20 EMA, 108.89, current daily low could be reached, while a break below it will mean 108.70 and 108.49 + yesterday low could follow then.
The Aussie was little moved yesterday, ranging above the 4h chart 20 EMA. However, despite the corrective move, the price managed to hold above the 20 EMA, which is a bullish sign. As long as the EMA will act as support, we expect a new leg up to start in the short-term, while an impulsive break below it, will mean a weakening of the upside trend occurred and further selling pressure might follow afterwards.
On the upside, we expect the price to encounter short-term resistance around 0.7994 and 0.8019, while a breakout above yesterday high could mean 0.8042 and 0.8063 could be revisited again. We expect sellers to have a reaction around those points.
If the 20 EMA won’t manage to cap the downside, 0.7962 support level, where the price rebounded yesterday, could be reached, while below it, 0.7941 and 0.7921 could follow then as support areas.