Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-11-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-11-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro gapped lower at the opening of this week and continued downwards after that, so far managing to break below our short-term support around 1.2016 area. We expect the sellers to be in control as long as the price will trade below 1.2042 resistance level. On the other hand, a breakout above that area will confirm that the buyers resumed impulsively and we might see some further gains on the upside following.
For now the price is trending below the 1.2042 and also it is now trading below the 1h chart 20 EMA as well. It’s been a little while since it had not traded below it that long, so we expect the sellers to manage to push the price lower, towards 1.1994 and 1.1978 levels, where some short-term buyers might react a bit.
On the upside, a breakout above the 1h chart 20 EMA could mean further gains towards 1.2042 might follow. Sellers should react stronger there, considering it is a very important level. However, if the buyers will manage to keep the downside limited, 1.2070 and 1.2091, last wee high, are the ones you should watch.
The calendar for today is very thin and no important headlines are due.
The dollar gapped higher against the swiss franc as well at the beginning of this week and recent news point towards the fact that it was attributed to North Korea no reaction since it has announced its successful hydrogen bomb test. The fact that no important events took place since then was taken as a relief by investors, thus the current short-term surge that we see. As the price moves up it will encounter resistance so we need to see if the buyers are strong enough.
At the time of writing, the price managed to break above the 0.9482-0.9492 resistance area and is currently trading little above it. We expect it to encounter heavier resistance around the 4h chart 20 EMA, which will be backed by 0.9526 and 0.9544.
In case the selling pressure resumes we expect a new breakout below the area we mentioned above and last week lows could be put under pressure. Buyers should react around 0.9443 and 0.9426 as we’ve seen buying activity there in the past.
Following last week impressive bull run, cable had been consolidating lower today during the Asian session. Looking at the short-term price action structure, we can see that the last four candles of selling did not manage to just one candle of buying so that suggests the selling don’t have a significant impact on the price thus far and the move is probably generated by short-term profit taking. We expect the buyers to attempt a breakout above the 1.3266 level, which is July high.
Since the price managed to break below our first short-term support level located around 1.3190 area, we expect it to head lower towards 1.3158 and 1.3125. Given the fact that we’ve seen that strong bull move last week, the downside should be limited.
On the upside, if the buying pressure resumes, 1.3190 could act as resistance now, while a break above it could send the price towards last week high around 1.3223. Above that point, 1.3243 and 1.3266 are the ones who follow and selling activity could become stronger there since the price will approach some monthly highs.
The US dollar-yen pair is up around 60 pips from the Friday close at the time of writing after an upside gap we saw at the open of around 30 pips. Even though usually the market tries to fill the gap, so far we’ve seen little reaction from the sellers. If the price will manage to move impulsively on the upside that could signal a change of hands is taking place in the market, while if the price will start to move lower impulsively again, selling pressure could drive the price towards last week low.
If the sellers would start to push the price lower, as we begin to see a weakening of the bullish momentum, we expect the price to encounter short-term support around 108.25 and 108.12. In case a break below the lather takes place, the gap filling process should begin and price could head towards 107.84 level.
On the upside, if the buyers will manage to continue to push the price higher, 108.44 is the short-term resistance which capped the upside thus far and it should fade. If that happens, further upside gains are expected towards 108.69 and higher towards 109.20.
The Aussie retreated lower during the Asian session and it almost reached the 4h chart 20 EMA before bouncing a little. The EMA acted as support for a decent amount of time and buyers should treat it as support again. If the price will rebound around that area, we might see then an attempt to break last week high from the buyers, while a continuation below the 20 EMA will signal a short-term weakening of the bullish trend.
Since the price is currently trading above the 20 EMA, we keep our bias towards the buy short-term. 0.8044 and the EMA are expected to act as a support area to cap the downside. In case a break lower takes place, 0.8027 and 0.7994 are due to follow then.
On the upside, if we see the price rebounding around the 20 EMA that could mean an attempt to reach 0.8066 is on the way. If sellers won’t manage to cap the upside below it, further gains might follow towards 0.8124 last week high.