Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-12-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-12-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
Since hurricane Irma has now passed and the tensions between North Korea and the US had diminished short-term, the dollar had been gaining ground yesterday against all major currencies. The euro got hit pretty hard as now the price is trending below the 1h chart 20 EMA and treating it as resistance. We’ve seen several touches off of it and each time the sellers resumed impulsively. Looking ahead, we expect the downside trend to continue further.
As the price continues to trade below the 20 EMA, we expect it to head lower towards 1.1928, the spike that was generated last week during Mario Draghi’s press conference. A breach below that are could expose 1.1907 and 1.1871 support levels.
On the upside, buyers should have small ground to develop as the 1h chart 20 EMA and 1.1970 resistance level come into play very close from the point we are right now. If that zone will fail, 1.1992 and 1.2016 will follow then.
We don’t have any significant news from EU or US today.
Following the gap on the open that we’ve seen yesterday, the price had been trading impulsively higher, now around 0.9562, up about 100 pips. The price relation towards the 20 EMA had shifted and it is trading above the line, without touching it for a decent amount of time. Looking ahead, since the tensions had decreased short-term, as long as the conditions will remain the same, we expect the dollar to be favored in the near future.
The price had retraced a bit before touching 0.9575 resistance line. We expect selling activity to rebound around it or around 0.9594, while above those levels, 0.9614 follows. Since we’ve seen sellers reacting to those levels in the past that could happen again in the future.
If the price retraces lower towards the 20 EMA, it could find support first around 0.9549 level. A short-term breach of the EMA will expose 0.9535 while a deeper correction could mean 0.9510 might follow.
The US dollar did not manage to gain as much ground as it did against the other two majors and the move was much shorter on the downside. Considering that the downside had been limited, that confirms the buyers are holding ground at high points and they could start a new leg up in the near future. Also, today we have some key inflation figures due from UK and we expect them to generate volatility.
If the corrective structure will continue to extend on the downside, 1.3158 and the 4h chart 20 EMA will come into play. A breach below the EMA could expose 1.3125 and 1.3079, where buyers could resume again.
However, if the buying pressure will resume while the price does not breaks below the EMA, 1.3190 and 1.3223, last week high could be put under pressure. Above those levels, 1.3243 follows next.
- From UK, Retail Price Index figures + House Price Index + Producer Price Index figures + Consumer Price Index figures are due to being released at 08:30am GMT.
The yen weakened significantly against the US dollar yesterday. Even though the price gapped higher at the open, we’ve not seen any attempt by the market to fill it, from the contrary, the price had been moving up impulsively, trading around 180 pips up at the time of writing. Since the risk-on mode is now in play, as long as the yen won’t be favored by any surge in the political tensions, we expect the price to continue to head on the upside and erase some of the gains that were generated in the last few weeks.
So far, the price managed to breach above the 109.39 resistance, but we are seeing some reaction from the sellers since the price is trading below it again. 109.23 and 108.97 are expected to be reached, in case the downside will continue further.
If the buyers will manage to push the price beyond recent daily highs, 109.50 and 110.27 might follow then. Selling activity should become stronger as we head into 110.64 resistance zone, we’re we should see stronger counter trend moves.
The Aussie was trading lower yesterday, and it breached below the 4h chart 20 EMA. However, the price did not manage to move further from the line, confirming that the selling pressure had not been great. That’s why we see a short-term rebound towards the EMA at the time of writing. If the buying pressure will resume and the EMA will be breached, we expect the bullish trend to extend further while if the sellers will treat the EMA as resistance, further gains on the downside might follow.
On the upside, the price should encounter resistance around 0.8027 and the 20 EMA. A breach on the upside should expose 0.8044 and 0.8066, where sellers could manage to have at least a mild reaction.
If the downside will extend further, 0.7994 and 0.7963 are expected to be reached and we might see some reactions from the buyers there.