Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-15-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-15-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro had managed to gain little ground on a daily basis, yesterday, even though US inflation figures ticked up, raising the odds of a Fed rate hike in the following months. The price slumped towards our support around 1.1848 and after a brief breakout below it, it quickly resumed the upside and headed into 1.1920 resistance zone, where it is also currently located. The relation towards the EMA changed and now the sellers seem to be in control.
The 1.1917-1.1925 area can act as a barrier in front of the buyers and it should be a strong zone since the 4h chart 20 EMA is also located near it. If the buyers breach above it, 1.1950 will be next. We expect the price action to not go too far from the EMA.
On the downside, if the selling pressure will resume again, 1.1839 support will be our first short-term target, while a breakout below it could open further ground towards 1.1848, where the price had rebounded yesterday.
- EU Trade Balance figures are Labor Cost are due at 09:00am GMT.
- From the US, Retail Sales figures are due at 00:30pm, followed by Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 01:15pm GMT.
The US dollar found resistance against the swiss franc around the 0.9662-.09683 resistance zone yesterday and it had since then consolidated lower. Looking at the 1h chart, we can see a bearish engulfing bar followed by a short-term downside leg. The area was mentioned by us several times in the past and we expected it to generate some selling pressure. However, given the fact that the prior price action was heavily bullish, we expect at least a new retest of yesterday high.
So far the price is trading little below the 20 EMA, retracing towards it for the last few hours. If sellers will see it at a selling opportunity and the downside will resume, 0.9614 will be first target, while below it we have the 0.9594 and 0.9575 support.
On the upside, buyers would need to break above the EMA to confirm that they have returned and are driving the order flow. 0.9648, followed by the resistance zone we already mentioned are due to being hit then.
Sterling had been one of the best performing currencies yesterday, surging on the upside impulsively as the BOE pointed towards a rate hike after the current inflation figures that were published. Cable surged by more than 200 pips and treated again the 4h chart 20 EMA as a pivoting point. Looking ahead, the price seems to be doomed for a continuation higher, as the fundamentals support that.
Currently, the price is located around yesterday high and it should be no surprise if a breakout above it takes place. 1.3431 and 1.3500 area are the resistance areas above it, which could generate significant selling pressure.
On the downside, sellers should not have strong impact as long as the price is floating above the 4h chart 20 EMA. 1.3348 and 1.3328 are expected to cap the downside, being followed by the 1.3281 support, located right around the EMA.
- BOE Quarterly Bulletin will be released at 11:00am GMT.
The dollar-yen had also consolidated lower yesterday, despite better than expected data from the US. However, the bullish momentum seems to be building up again as we’ve seen significant recovery during the Asian session. So far, the price managed to break again above the 1h chart 20 EMA, at it seems to be pointing towards a new retest of yesterday high and resistance zone. On the other hand, if the selling pressure will resume, yesterday low could be hit again.
At the time of writing the price sits around 110.46 and it seems to be heading towards 110.64. Above that level, 110.89 follows, where the upside had been capped yesterday. A breach above yesterday high could mean further continuation towards 111.47 might follow.
If the selling pressure resumes impulsively below the 20 EMA, 110.27 could be breached and further slides could follow towards 109.90 and 109.54, where the downside stalled yesterday.
The Aussie continued to consolidate below the 4h chart 20 EMA and it continues to do so at the time of writing as well. However, given the fact that the selling impulsive move was followed by this consolidation that could point out towards a continuation lower and further weakness of the Australian dollar. On the other hand, if the current price action structure will end up to be a bottoming structure, further upside gains will follow.
We expect 0.7998 and the 4h chart 20 EMA to act as a resistance zone in front of the buyers. A strong break above it could expose 0.8027 and 0.8044. Following above is the 0.8066 area, where some sellers might also react.
If the selling pressure will resume around the 4h chart 20 EMA, we believe there is a possibility for a new retest of 0.7963, where the downside stopped yesterday. A breach below those lows could mean 0.7941 and 0.7890 are next.