Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-18-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-18-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro moved higher on Friday, after the Retail Sales from the US came out below expectations. The price surged towards the 1.1979 resistance level and consolidated lower until the end of the session, but so far the buyers show signs of recovery after hitting the 4h chart 20 EMA. The US dollar could continue to be under pressure, also due to recent rising political tensions, triggered by a new missile launch over Japan by North Korea.
Getting back to the technical analysis, our first short-term resistance lies around 1.1950, where we’ve seen some reaction thus far. An upward breakout will open further buying ground towards 1.1979. If the Friday high is breached, 1.2021 and 1.2070 might follow.
On the downside, if the selling pressure continues, we expect 1.1920 area to act as support, while below it, 1.1893 could follow then. Selling activity should remain limited.
- From EU, CPI figures are due to being released at 09:00am GMT.
- From US, NAHB Housing Market Index will follow at 02:00pm GMT.
The swiss franc gained some ground against the US dollar on Friday and managed to break below the 4h chart 20 EMA, confirming that a weakening of the upside leg had happened. So far the price had retraced towards the EMA and the sellers seem to begin to gain momentum again. If the sellers will treat it as resistance and start a new leg down that will breach Friday low that could confirm that the buyers lost control over the order flow.
First of all, the 0.9574 support might act as a barrier in front of the sellers as we’ve seen several reaction around that level in the recent time. A breach below it and below Friday low will open further selling space towards 0.9545 and 0.9498.
However, if the price continues to climb above the 4h chart 20 EMA impulsively, it might head towards 0.9651 and 0.9678, where it was capped on Friday. Given the current price action, we expect the upside to be limited.
Sterling continued to gain more ground on Friday as the US dollar was hurt by weaker than expected data. As a whole, cable ended up with more than 400 pips last week, the biggest weekly gain we saw this year. From an order flow perspective, that confirms that the bulls are heavily in control and the move could continue higher. However, after such strong moves, it is not excluded that the market will consolidate for a while.
The price continues to be located above the 4h chart 20 EMA, the last time it was touched being on September 14th. If a consolidation structure will start to build up, we expect the price to head lower towards 1.3553 and 1.3502. Below those areas, 1.3431 and the 4h chart 20 EMA will follow as support.
On the upside, the Friday high located around 1.3614 is expected to generate at least some short-term selling pressure, while a breach above it could expose the 1.3652, where we expect a stronger reaction from the sell side.
Despite the weaker than expected Retail Sales figures from the US, the price managed to close the week with solid gains. However, it seems like the 110.66 acted as support, since the price is climbing since the start of the day. Looking ahead, the upward leg does not show signs of weakness thus far and it could continue higher. Also, recent headlines do not favor the dollar and the sellers might profit from that as well.
If the price continues to extend higher and manages to breach above last week high, 111.47 will be our first short-term resistance level, while a breach above it will expose 112.08 area.
On the downside, if the selling pressure resumes, 111.07 area and 110.66 could act again as support. We also have the 20 EMA below the lather and it should trigger some buying orders as well. If not, 110 area and 109.54 will be next.
The Aussie also started to build up on the upside on Friday and at the start of this week as well, since we can see a rebound higher after the 0.7998 support had been touched. The price is bouncing off the 20 EMA, suggesting that the buyers see opportunities around the line. If that will continue, we expect the Friday high to be breached and a continuation higher. On the other hand, a strong break below the EMA will mean sellers regained control.
However, thus far the buyers are the ones in control, since the price is located above the 1h chart 20 EMA. It is located around the 0.8027 resistance and if a breach of Friday high takes place, 0.8044 and 0.8066 will follow then.
On the downside, 0.7998 and the 1h chart 20 EMA can act as support if sellers move the price on the downside. If both fade, 0.7963 and 0.7941 could follow then.