Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-20-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-20-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro managed to gain some ground since we’ve last wrote and it is now heading towards the 1.2022 short-term resistance level. Looking at the price action structure, the 1h chart 20 EMA acted as a dynamic support level several times as we’ve seen the downside being capped around the EMA 5 times since the start of the week. We expect the price to continue to advance as long as it floats above the EMA and generates higher lows and higher highs.
As we already mentioned, the price is headed towards the 1.2022 resistance level and given the current price action structure a breach above it is not excluded. If that takes place, we expect the price to continue to advance towards 1.2070, key swing point.
On the downside, the sellers will encounter support around 1.1993, where the 20 EMA is also located. They would need to manage to breach that zone in order to be able to advance further towards 1.1961 and 1.1925.
- From Germany, Producer Price Index figures are due at 06:00am GMT.
- From US, Fed Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference are scheduled to take place at 06:00pm and 06:30pm respectively.
Even though dollar-swiss managed to make a new daily high yesterday, the upside had been limited and the price resumed to the downside. Current price action structure suggests that the market is consolidating and we expect it to do so until the FOMC meeting and Press conference later today. We expect that event to generate volatility as the Fed could bring out further information about the future rate hikes and also the reduction of their balance sheet.
If the buyers will start to push the price upwards again, they could manage to reach the 0.9639 area, where the upside was capped yesterday. A breach of that zone will mean 0.9659 and 0.9683 will follow next.
On the downside, if sellers continue to push the price lower, 0.9594, yesterday low could be put under pressure, while a breach below it will expose 0.9575 and 0.9546 support areas.
Cable had been consolidating in a very narrow range yesterday and we mentioned in our Monday daily forecast that we expected the price to consolidate following last week 400 pips upward leg. Looking ahead, we expect volatility to spike today since we have important economic data both from UK and US. Judging by the current price structure, it seems like the downside will prevail. However, since the economic calendar for today is full, it will be better to expect the news to come out and only then to make trading decisions.
On the downside, sellers should encounter support around 1.3502 and 1.3464, where buyers showed some signs in the past. If both are breached, further selling ground will be opened towards 1.3405, key area.
On the upside, 1.3551 had managed to cap the upside at the start of this week and if the price reaches it, we might see selling activity again there. Above it, last week high around 1.3616 and the 1.3652 resistance level will follow next.
- From UK, four Retail Sales figures are scheduled to be released later at 08:30 am GMT.
The dollar-yen had been moving sideways yesterday, confirming that both sides of the market had been heavily involved. Even though we can see three impulsive bullish candles on the 1h chart, the selling prevailed and the buyers had been inexistent since then. Today data is expected to generate higher volatility, as the expectations around the Fed meeting together with the uncertainty, are very high.
Since the price currently broke below the 1h chart 20 EMA that suggests a short-term weakness of the overall bullish trend had occurred and we suspect further downside towards 111.32 and 111.03 support levels might follow. A breach of those levels will open further ground towards 110.68 area.
On the upside, buyers should first need to manage to break again above the 20 EMA in order to continue further towards 111.70, where the sellers resumed yesterday. Above that level, 112.12 and 112.38 represent our next resistance zones.
The Aussie managed to build up higher since our last forecast at the time of writing sits below the 0.8027 resistance level. Looking at this point, the price managed to break again above the 4h chart 20 EMA which shows that buyers managed to surpass the selling pressure. We expect volatility to pick up strongly ahead and after the Fed meeting and press conference as the institution could reveal new precious information for the market.
As we mentioned already, our first resistance is located around 0.8027, where the price is almost located. A breach above that level could open further upside ground towards 0.8056 and 0.8081 area.
On the downside, sellers should resume strongly and break impulsively below the 4h chart 20 EMA in order to confirm that they regained control over the price action. 0.7970 and 0.7950 support levels could be under pressure again, if that takes place.