Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-21-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-21-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro consolidated higher against the US dollar before the FOMC meeting and Press Conference, but lost significant ground during and after the event since the institution pointed out that there is still room for a new rate hike until the end of the year. The price slumped impulsively and we can see a bearish engulfing bar that covers almost entirely the previous short-term upward leg.
Looking ahead, considering the impulsiveness of the move, we believe the price could continue further on the downside. So far, it found short-term support around 1.1867 and if it manages to break below, 1.1821 and 1.1774 area going to follow then.
On the upside, if a retracement on the upside starts to build up, following last night slump, we believe there is room for buyers until 1.1915 and 1.1957. Since we have the 4h chart 20 EMA as well there, we expect it to manage to cap the upside.
- From EU, ECB President will hold a speech at 01:30pm GMT.
- From US, Continuing Jobless Claims and Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey are due at 00:30 pm GMT.
The US dollar surged against the swiss franc as well yesterday and managed to break last week high around 0.9700 area. During the Asian session the price action slowed down, but still it is located around yesterday high. Given the impulsiveness of yesterday move, we believe there is room for more upside gains in the short and medium term horizon. Even though a retracement takes place, we expect the 4h chart 20 EMA to act as support and cap the downside.
Currently, the price seems to be heading towards 0.9725 resistance level, where we expect at least some mild profit taking to take place. A breach of that level would mean buyers could continue to push the price towards 0.9760-0.9771, where we expect sellers to react strongly.
On the downside, the possibility of a retracement is not excluded at all and we expect buyers to step in again if the sellers drive the price towards 0.9698 or 0.9679. In case both fail, 0.9647 backed by the 4h chart 20 EMA are expected to provide stronger support.
Cable reacted in volatile way during the US session as the Fed press conference was in. The sterling had been on positive since the European session as the UK economic figures that were released pointed out to an improvement in Retail Sales. The price action had breached above last week high and resumed the downside impulsively, forming a very nice bearish engulfing bar, which represent a counter-trend price action signal.
After the engulfing bar, we see mild price action activity, due to profit taking after the event and due to the fact that we had the late US session and the Asian Session in play. If the downside will continue to extend, we expect the price to manage to reach 1.3405 and 1.3342 support areas.
However, if the buyers start to resume and the price moves on the upside, we expect them to find resistance around the 1h chart 20 EMA and 1.3551. Above that level, 1.3616, last week high, is expected to generate strong selling pressure again.
- From UK, Mortgage Approvals and Public Sector Net Borrowing are due to being released at 08:30am GMT.
The dollar-yen found support around the 4h chart 20 EMA and surged on the upside, breaking impulsively above the 111.89, previous weekly high. The US dollar managed to gain significant ground against all majors as the Fed not only leaved a new rate hike on the table until the end of the year, but also pointed out that will start to reduce its balance sheet from October. At this point in time, the price action points to a further advance of the bullish trend.
If the buyers will keep pushing the price on the upside, we expect the price action to reach 112.84 and 113.45 resistance levels, where selling activity might resume, at least for the short-term horizon.
On the downside, sellers influence should be limited, as we expect the price to continue to float above the 20 EMA. Until then, 112.38 and 112.20 could provide short-term support for the price. 111.89 is also located below them.
The Aussie also lost ground against the US dollar. However, as we saw for the other pairs, the price had been consolidating since the Fed meeting ended. The Aussie, on the other hand, still continues to slide suggesting that the selling activity is still intense. Given the structure of the move, we expect it to extend lower as the buyers do not manage to show at least some mild signs of recovery.
On the downside, 0.7970, where the price is currently located and 0.7953, could provide some short-term support for the price, while a breach below them could mean further slides might follow towards 0.7920 support area.
On the upside, 0.7998 and the 4h chart 20 EMA are expected to act as a barrier in front of the buyers and cap the upside. Only if a strong breakout above them takes place, we could expect a further continuation towards 0.8027 and 0.8056.