Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-22-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-22-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
Following the slump that we’ve seen after the Fed Press conference, the euro managed to recover against the US dollar and yesterday was up around 90 pips, top tick to bottom tick. Since the long-term bullish trend had been in play from the start of the year, we suspect that some traders regarded the selling down as a buying opportunity. Looking ahead, the price could extend higher, if the economic figures due to being released today will support that scenario.
So far, the price is bouncing off the 15 min chart 20 EMA, confirming that there is buying interest around the line. As the price continues to make that, we believe there is room for further continuation towards 1.1985 and 1.2019.
On the downside, our first support area is formed by the 1.1954 level + 15 min chart 20 EMA. A strong break below that zone will confirm the selling pressure resumed and further slides might follow towards 1.1928 and 1.1901.
- At 07:30am GMT we have some PMI due from Germany, and at 08:00am, the same indicators will be released for the EU as well.
- From US, PMI indicators are scheduled to come out at 01:45 pm GMT.
The US dollar did not manage to continue the impulsive upside against the swiss franc and we saw the price consolidating lower yesterday. Today during the Asian session the price had been under higher pressure as the tensions between the US and North Korea are rising again. There had been some tough comments both from the US President Donald Trump and from Kim Jong Un, which had managed to fuel the concerns.
If the sellers will continue to push the price on the downside, we expect 0.9659 and 0.9648 support levels to be reached in the short-term. A breach below those level could weaken further the upside momentum and drive the price towards 0.9604 support.
On the upside, 0.9680 area is expected to act as resistance in case the buyers resume. If they will manage to overcome that obstacle, further gains might follow towards 0.9698 and 0.9719 swing point.
Sterling managed to recover as well against the US dollar and for now we see the price continuing to range. The bottom level of the range is located around 1.3464 will the top around 1.3616. Since both sides managed to generate selling/buying pressure, we expect the range to continue to hold as long no impulsive breakout outside of it will take place. Until that happens, playing both sides can be highly effective.
At the time of writing the price is consolidating due to weak liquidity during the Asian session. If the buyers will continue to push the price upwards, they could encounter sellers around 1.3616, the top of the range or 1.3655, current weekly high.
If the range will continue to be in play a new leg down might follow. Before reaching the bottom, the price is expected to find short-term support around 1.3551 and 1.3501 levels, both being followed by 1.3464, bottom of the range.
- From UK, PM Theresa May will hold an important speech regarding the Brexit negotiations. The exact time had not been published.
The yen had also been favored by the recent tough exchange of words between Donald Trump and North Korea leader and the fears regarding a new conflict between the two countries had arisen again. Looking at the chart, we can see a 1h candle that is very large in size, followed by weak reaction from the buyers suggesting that a possible exhaustion might had been taking place and thus pointing towards a deeper retracement lower.
If the price starts to rebound higher from the current point, we expect it to head into resistance around 111.87 and 112.08. Since we are now below the 20 EMA, we expect sellers to treat it as resistance since we also have the 112.38 resistance level little above it.
If the selling pressure will increase and will drive the price below current daily lows, we expect 111.53 and 111.34 to act as short-term support, while a breach below them will mean further slides might follow towards 111.07, the bottom of the candle which formed during the Fed press conference.
The Aussie continued to lose ground against the US dollar, despite the fact that the American currency weakened against all majors. The price managed to break below weekly lows which confirms the sellers had been heavily in control. The overall price action structure suggests there is a swift change of hands taking place right now in the market, since new lower lows forming, showing that the sellers manage to generate strong downside moves.
So far, the price managed to find short-term support around 0.7920 area. If the selling pressure will resume again, we expect the price to breach below current daily lows and head towards 0.7889 and 0.7867.
If the 0.7920 will cap the downside, the price could further consolidate on the upside towards 0.7953 and 0.7970 levels. We also have the 4h chart 20 EMA located above them and the 0.7998 as well.