Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-25-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-25-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro was on the way up in the first part of the day during Friday, but after a false break above 1.1985 resistance level, the sellers resumed and the US dollar gained some ground until the end of the week. For now, the price is still retracing higher after the slump that was generated by the Fed Press Conference and in the short or medium term, we expect euro weakness to prevail as the US dollar could gain more ground.
The price closed little below the 1.1954 resistance level and sellers should treat it again as an entry point if it will be reached again. A breach above it could open further ground towards 1.1985 and 1.2019, where we expect a stronger reaction from the sell side.
If the sellers will continue to push lower from the current point, 1.1928 and 1.1901 are expected to provide short-term support from buyers and if they fail to do that, 1.1860, the low of the engulfing bearish candle, could follow.
- From Germany, three IFO indicators are due at 08:00am GMT.
- From US, Chicago Fed National Activity Index will be released at 00:30pm GMT, followed by Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 02:00pm GMT.
The US dollar continued to consolidate lower against the swiss franc on Friday, following the impulsive candle that was generated by the Fed new information released during the Press Conference on Wednesday. Thus far, the price reacted after reaching the 4h chart 20 EMA, but the current price action structure points towards a deeper retracement lower. The political situation could again play a major key, since the tensions are beginning to rise again.
On the upside, sellers should regard the 0.9700 level as a new entry point, while if a breakout above it takes place, 0.9725 and 0.9771 might follow afterwards. As long as the 20 EMA acts as support and caps the downside, the buyers are still in control.
The 4h chart 20 EMA and 0.9667 could act as a support zone if the selling pressure resumes and drives the price towards Friday low. 0.9647 and 0.9628 will follow below that zone and also, the bullish momentum will weaken if those levels will be reached.
Cable had continued to range between 1.3464 and 1.3616, a zone that we’ve mentioned in one of our last week market forecasts. As you can see the bottom line of range managed to hold thus far. However, looking at the price action structure it seems like the sellers are beginning to gain a slightly advantage against the buyers and that could materialize in a downside breakout this week. We expect to see what reaction the buyers will have.
If they will push the price upwards, we expect them to encounter resistance around 1.3501 and 1.3551 areas, before reaching the top line of our range located around 1.3616, where selling activity should be more impulsive.
On the downside, a clear breakout below the 1.3464 will be needed to confirm that further slides might follow. If the breakout truly takes place, we expect the sellers to drive the price towards 1.3404 and 1.3344 support.
There are no important economic figures due to being released from UK.
The dollar-yen consolidated higher on Friday after a stronger retracement on the downside. The price action stalled after the Fed Press Conference and we did not see too much follow through, suggesting that the buyers were not that eager to continue to buy. Currently, the price is hovering around the 30 min chart 20 EMA and it seems like the sellers could resume the downside in the short-term horizon since the buying leg had been very mild in size and strength.
If the 112.08 level will turn out to be a strong resistance level, 111.87 and the Friday low could be put under pressure. A breach below the low could open further room towards 111.53 and 111.34 support.
On the upside, buyers would need to first break above 112.08 area in order to be able to push the price higher towards 112.38 and 112.64, where the sellers started to drive the price on the downside. We expect buying activity to be limited in the short-term.
The Aussie found support around 0.7920 on Friday and then managed to gain around 60 pips on the upside until the end of the day. The 4h chart 20 EMA, however, managed to cap the upside and we’ve seen the price retrace lower at the end of the week. Looking ahead, the price had been choppy in the last few days and it should begin to have a cleared direction bias in the days ahead. If the sellers would treat the EMA as resistance, further downside gains might follow.
In order for that to happen, the buyers should not manage to push the price above Friday high and sellers should enter aggressively if the price gets back above the 20 EMA. 0.7920 support and 0.7889 could be reached again, if that will happen.
On the upside, a clear breakout above the Friday high could mean a test around the 0.7988 might be under way, while a break above that resistance level will open more ground towards 0.8027 area.