Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-26-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-26-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro slumped yesterday against the US dollar after the German election provided a surprise. The far-right party, AfD managed to obtain a higher results that the forecasts, which raised concerns that populism is rising also in Germany. The euro broke below last week low and consolidated afterwards, suggesting that the selling pressure had been overwhelming and also that the buyers’ response had been very week.
Looking ahead, since the buyers had been very mild thus far, we expect the downside trend to continue to move lower. Our next support level is located around 1.1821, while a breach below it could open further ground towards 1.1774 and 1.1744 levels.
On the upside, buyers should have limited impact. Thus far, the 1.1859 managed to provide enough resistance to cap the upside and the selling pressure resumed there. Above it, the 1.1895 area backed by the 4h chart 20 EMA should cap the upside, if reached.
- From US, a few Home Prices figures are due at 01:00pm and 02:00pm respectively. Also, we have a Fed’s Yellen speech at 04:45pm.
The US dollar was again under pressure against the swiss franc, even though there is a positive correlation between this pair and the EURUSD. The safe haven had been favored again by the exchange of remarks coming from both the President Trump and North Korea officials, which boosted again the investors’ risk aversion. Thus far, the price managed to reach 0.9647 area and it seems to be bottoming out at the time of writing.
\If the dollar will continue to recover, we expect the price to head into the 0.9683 resistance level, while a breach above it could open further ground towards 0.9704 and 0.9725 resistance areas.
On the downside, if the selling pressure will continue, we expect the 0.9647 key role reversal level to be tested again. In case the sellers will manage to break impulsively below it, further slides might follow towards 0.9585 support.
Cable had been trading towards the bottom of our range, that we’ve talked about a number of times in the recent days and now it seems like the price action structure begins to shift. The sellers tested twice the bottom of the range and we’ve seen very weak reaction afterwards, confirming that the buyers’ response had been weak there. Taking that into consideration, we assume that a breakout and continuation lower could be possible in the near future.
So far the price looks to be topping around the 1h chart 20 EMA and if the selling pressure will resume impulsively starting from that point, we believe there is room for a further continuation towards 1.3404 and 1.3328.
On the upside, in case the buyers manage to push the price above current daily highs and above the 1h chart 20 EMA, we expect 1.3501 and 1.3551 resistance level to be reached. Keep in mind that the price had responded decently around the 4h chart 20 EMA as well.
- From UK, BBA Mortgage Approvals are due at 08:30am GMT.
The yen had also been an important gainer against the US dollar yesterday, since the price had been moved around 70 pips on the downside, following a small bullish gap. Similar with the GBPUSD pair, the buyers did not manage to give a significant response following the leg down, which confirms that the bullish appetite is very low, which gives a slightly advantage to the sellers in the short-term horizon.
Looking ahead, if the sellers will continue to dominate the order flow in the same way, we believe there is a high probability that the downside trend will continue to extend towards 111.34 and 111.07.
On the other hand, if the buyers manage to resume and push the price on the upside, we expect them to encounter resistance around the 111.77 area, which is backed by the 1h chart 20 EMA as well. 111.94 and 112.23 could follow above that point, in case the buyers manage to sustain the price and push it up.
The Aussie had consolidated lower yesterday, since the US dollar managed to gain some ground against majors like euro and sterling as well. So far, the 4h chart 20 EMA managed to provide enough resistance as we’ve seen the sellers capping the upside around the line. As long as the buying momentum will remain limited and the sellers will be in control, we expect the last week lows to be put under pressure again.
Before that, we expect 0.7920 support to provide some fresh buying orders, which should absorb some of the selling orders. Below last week low, further slides are expected towards 0.7889 and 0.7868 support.
On the upside, 0.7953 and the 20 EMA located above it could provide short-term resistance, in case the buyers resume. Above that point, we expect sellers to rejoin around 0.7970 and 0.7998 levels.