Daily Forex forecast analysis 09-29-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 09-29-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro managed to recover against the US dollar, even though we had some good economic figures from the US, with the Annualized GDP figure at 3.1%, beating the forecast of 3%. From a price action perspective, the price had formed a double bottom and then managed to break the 1.1776 neckline. The price activity had been pretty choppy during the late US and Asian session and so we expect the see how the economic figures will come out today.
If the double bottom formation will be confirmed by a new wave of buying around 1.1776 neckline, we expect the price to head into 1.1810 and 1.1836. Above those levels we have the 1.1861 area, which should provide stronger selling pressure.
On the downside, our first support level is the neckline of the double bottom. In case the buyers won’t be able to hold the price around that level, further slides might follow then towards 1.1744 and 1.1712.
- From Germany, we have some employment figures due at 08:00am GMT. At 09:00am some CPI figures for the EU will follow.
- From US, Personal Income, Personal Spending + consumption expenditures figures are due at 00:30pm GMT.
The US dollar had been capped on the upside by the 0.9742 resistance level again, against the swiss franc. We had a choppy trading activity for the last three days, which confirms that both sides of the market are very activity in the area the price is currently located. We also suggest caution as today is the last trading day of the month and we could see some wild swings later, so watch closely how the market moves.
Getting back to the technical analysis, the price managed to find support around the 0.9704 level and if the upside will continue to extend, we believe it could head into 0.9725 and 0.9742, resistance levels. Above those two, 0.9771 lies ahead and we should see stronger selling there.
On the downside, if the selling pressure resumes, we expect the 0.9704 to be reached again, while a breach below yesterday low could open further ground towards 0.9683 and 0.9648 support levels.
- From Switzerland, KOF Leading Indicator is due at 07:00am GMT.
Cable had also managed to recover some ground yesterday, following a few days of sustained selling. So far it seems like the price managed to find short-term support around 1.3451 level and from that point forward, we see a retracement lower throughout the entire Asian session. Looking ahead, today we have critical data coming due both from US and UK and those figures should have a strong impact on the price development.
If the selling pressure will continue to push the price lower, 1.3404 support could be reached. We consider that level as a strong one so any major break below it will open further selling ground towards 1.3378 and 1.3363 areas.
On the upside, if the buyers will manage to build up enough to absorb the selling orders, we expect a new retest of 1.3428, while a breach above it will push the price towards 1.3451, where the upside was capped yesterday and then towards 1.3463.
- From UK, we have GDP figures, Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals, Money Supply figures and Net Lending to Individuals scheduled to be released at 08:30am.
The US dollar moved higher against the yen yesterday in the first part of the day, but the selling pressure resumed before the price was able the reach the 113.23 resistance level. The price moved lower and breached the Wednesday low, but we can see it finding support around 112.23 level. Looking ahead, the big picture still does not point for a trend reversal so as long as no significant selling leg takes place, the upside is open.
If the buyers will manage to push the price upwards, 112.72 stands as our first short-term resistance level. A breach above it could open further ground for the buyers towards 113.03 and 113.23 area, where the sellers had resumed strongly in the past two days.
On the other hand, if the sellers will resume we expect the 112.23 level to be tested again and if a breakout below it takes place, further losses might follow towards 111.88.
The Aussie managed to rebound as well after a short breakout below the 0.7812 support. The buyers started to push the price higher following that event and they managed to gain around 50 pips. However, the long-term picture does not show that the buyers managed to regain control over the order flow. From the contrary, it is very likely that the sellers will see the current leg up as a new opportunity to sell.
On the upside, we have the 0.7860 area, backed by the 4h chart 20 EMA, which should act as a strong resistance zone. Only if a strong breakout above that zone takes place, we could see further gains towards 0.7906.
On the other hand, if the sellers will resume and our resistance zone will hold, 0.7834 and 0.7812 support levels are expected to be tested again. Below yesterday low, 0.7787 stands next.