Daily Forex forecast analysis 10-03-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 10-03-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro continues to lose ground against the US dollar as the political uncertainty continues to weigh on Spain following Catalonia referendum. The official statement points towards a staggering 90% of the votes in favor of the independence, which raises concerns that a split from the central government from Madrid will materialize in the near future. Though negotiations will lie ahead and until then the common currency could be under pressure.
Moving towards the technical analysis, the price managed to break below last week low, confirming that the sellers had managed to overwhelm the buyers and since a breach below that area took place that could open further ground towards 1.1677 and 1.1652 support.
On the upside, buyers should have limited impact as long as no positive news regarding the Catalonia situation won’t come out. However, if the price rebounds short-term, we expect it to encounter resistance around 1.1712, key area or 1.1728 and 1.1754.
- From EU, Producer Price Index figures are scheduled to be released at 09:00am GMT.
The dollar managed to gain around 75 pips against the swiss franc as well. Looking at out chart, we can see a breakout above last week high had taken place this morning, which communicates that the buyers are heavily in control and the uptrend is still in play and advancing forward. We expect the US dollar to be treated as a safe currency due to political uncertainty in Spain. Also, from a technical point of view, the price is floating around the 4h chart 20 EMA and it could continue to do so.
Since a breakout above last week high took place, now the price seems to be heading towards 0.9804 resistance. Above that area, we have the 0.9823 and 0.9853, which could potentially generate stronger selling pressure.
On the other hand, if the price retraces lower, 0.9767, last week high and now key role reversal level, should act as support and cap the downside. In case the sellers will break below that zone, 0.9743 and 0.9703, after the 20 EMA, will follow then.
Cable continued to weaken yesterday, in tone with the EURUSD, a move favored by the US dollar advance against the other majors + the weak Markit Manufacturing PMI which was released from UK. Looking at the price action structure, the move had been impulsive right from the start of the week and we see no significant reaction from the buy side, which suggests that the sellers had been in control of the order flow until now.
Since we do not see any significant bullish signs at the time of writing, we expect the price to continue to head lower, 1.3221 being our first short-term support level. A breach below that level will open more ground towards 1.3181 and 1.3147.
On the other hand, if the price rebounds higher, we expect sellers to step in around 1.3295 or 1.3342, in case the move gets more impulsive. We believe sellers could react impulsively around the 4h chart 20 EMA, so the price action should continue to float below it.
- From UK, PMI Construction is due at 08:30am GMT.
The dollar-yen continued to treat the 4h chart 20 EMA as support and resumed the upside yesterday, being located very close to the last week high at the time of writing. So far, the sellers did not manage to react in a strong fashion, which suggests that the buyers are holding the ground at that high point. A potential breakout above weekly highs could be possible, taking into account the fact that there is little selling interest at that area thus far.
For now, the price seems to be consolidating around the 113.18 resistance level. A breakout above it and above last week high could open more buying space towards 113.59 and 113.89, where selling activity could resume, at least for the short-term.
On the downside, 113.05 and 112.73, with the lather located around the 4h chart 20 EMA should manage to absorb any selling pressure and keep the upside intact. 112.52 lies below the EMA, but so far we expect the buyers to resume around that zone.
The Aussie also managed to break below last week low and we can see how the price action is continuing to unfold below the 20 EMA, confirming that the sellers are driving the order flow impulsively. It’s been a few days since the price last touched the EMA, which shows that the appetite for selling had been high recently. Looking ahead, even though a retracement might take place in the short-term, we expect the sellers to treat any significant bull move as a new opportunity to sell.
At the time of writing, the price is located around last week low, after a round of selling which took place today, during the Asian session. If the sellers will continue to push the price lower, 0.7777 and 0.7741 could follow as support.
On the other hand, if the buyers resume, 0.7807 and 0.7834, with the lather located around the 20 EMA, should act as resistance and bring new sellers to the market. Above the EMA we have the 0.7859, which could potentially cap the upside as well.