Daily Forex forecast analysis 10-04-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 10-04-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro rebounded higher yesterday, as no significant news came out from Catalonia and then tensions eased for the short-term. The price started the climb impulsively after a brief break below the 1.1712, key role reversal level and support. At the time of writing, it sits little above the 4h chart 20 EMA, which acted as resistance last week as well. We expect to see if the price relation towards the EMA will change.
If it does and bulls will enter around the EMA, we expect the leg up to extend further towards 1.1804 and 1.1828, where at least some short-term selling interest might emerge. A breakout above the lather will open more buying space towards 1.1860 resistance.
On the downside, if selling pressure resumes and we see a strong break below the 20 EMA, we expect the price to head again towards 1.1728 and 1.1712, where buyers could try to balance the order flow and cap the downside.
- From Europe, Markit PMI Composite and Markit Services PMI are due at 07:55am for Germany and at 08:00am for EU.
- From US, ADP Employment Change is due at 00:15pm, followed by the same two indicators as above at 01:45pm. At 02:00pm, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will follow.
The US dollar found resistance around 0.9767 yesterday and after a brief break above the level, the selling pressure resumed and drove the price towards the 4h chart 20 EMA. At the time of writing, the price is located little below the EMA. Buyers had emerged a few times around that area, so we could see that happening again. If that won’t be the case, we should see some further selling and a weakening of the bullish trend.
If buying pressure resumes and drives the price above the EMA, we should see at least some short-term resistance around 0.9733 and 0.9746. If buyers manage to overcome those obstacles, further gains might follow towards 0.9767.
On the other hand, if the selling pressure continues, we should see the price heading towards 0.9695 and 0.9680, where buyers could attempt to cap the downside. We should see some stronger reactions if 0.9668 area is reached.
Cable did not continue to move as impulsive as it did at the beginning of the week and on the 1h chart we can see that the buyers had managed to balance the order flow. However, looking at the long-term picture, current price action structure looks like a mild consolidation. Since buyers had not generated some impulsive moves, we believe the sellers will see any consolidation higher as a new opportunity to get short.
At the time of writing, the price is located little above the 1h chart 20 EMA, but so far we do not see any change in terms of price relation towards it. If the bullish move will continue to extend, we expect it to encounter resistance around 1.3288 and 1.3312. Above those levels, 1.3343 will follow.
If selling pressure resumes and drives the price below the EMA impulsively, we could see it heading again towards the 1.3230 support, where the downside was capped yesterday. If yesterday low will be breached, 1.3181 support could follow.
- From UK, Markit Services PMI are due at 08:30am GMT.
Dollar-yen also retreated lower yesterday, as speculation around the future Fed chairman, which will be appointed in February next year, had begun. The market is now pricing in the scenario in which there will be a governor who had a different view of monetary policy and the rise of rates should be slower. As rumors begun to spread, the dollar lost ground and we can see it making new lows at the time of writing.
So far, we can see a double test of 112.53 support level. But considering that the sellers managed to generate a new low, that could communicate a further continuation towards 112.42 and 112.35 levels is possible.
On the other hand, if the price rebounds higher, we should see it heading towards 112.68, where it found resistance during the Asian session. The 1h chart 20 EMA should try to cap the upside as well, while a breach above it could open more room towards 112.91.
The Aussie had rebounded pretty impulsively in the last 24 hours, as the RBA Rate Statement published yesterday showed that the institutions is expecting a better economic activity. Combined with the dollar weakness it resulted in a breakout above the 4h chart 20 EMA and it is worth to mention that we last saw the price trending above the EMA on September 20th. For the short-term is seems like that suggests further gains on the upside might follow.
So far, the price encountered resistance around the 0.7859 level, where it has been hovering for the last few hours. If the buyers will manage to overcome that zone, we expect 0.7882 and 0.7907, resistance levels, to be reached as well.
On the downside, if sellers drive the price towards the EMA, will be interesting to watch if the buyers will treat it + 0.7834 level as support and start a new leg up. If the EMA will be breached, further selling pressure could drive the price towards 0.7807 and 0.7784.