Daily Forex forecast analysis 10-09-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 10-09-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro had been under pressure against the US dollar in the first part of the day on Friday, but after a spike lower due to the employment and earnings report from the US, the price resumed the upside and erased all the daily loses. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.2% but the NFP figures disappointed, the actual figure being at -33k. Earnings, however, managed to overcome expectations and we believe that’s the reason behind the dollar appreciation for a few minutes after the release.
The price ended the week above the 1.1712, key support area and role reversal level and as long as it will continue to trade above it, we expect it to manage to extend higher, towards 1.1762 and 1.1779, where sellers might resume.
On the downside, if political tensions from Spain escalate further, the euro could be again under pressure, but we expect 1.1712 and 1.1696 to act as a short-term support barrier and absorb the selling orders.
- Industrial Production figures from Germany are due at 06:00am GMT.
- In US, there is the Columbus Holiday, so no important headlines are expected.
As opposed to the EURUSD, dollar-swiss was on the way up for more than half of the day, but the selling pressure resumed impulsively and erased all the daily gains. On the daily chart, we have a pinbar that formed and that could draw the sellers’ attention. Looking ahead, we expect to see how the price will react to the 4h chart 20 EMA, as we saw it acting as a support area and capping the downside for a decent amount of time.
So, if the selling pressure will continue to drive the price lower, 0.9767 and the EMA could act as a support zone. In case they will fail to do that, further selling gains could follow towards 0.9746 and 0.9733, where buyers could balance the order flow.
On the upside, if the price will continue to float above the 4h chart 20 EMA, we could see a rebound higher towards 0.9804 and 0.9823, where the selling started on Friday, 30 minutes after the NFP figures and the other employment figures were released from US.
Cable had been under huge pressure last week and the weaker than expected NFP figure that was released on Friday could barely generate a mild correction towards the 1h chart 20 EMA. Sterling had been under pressure against all majors as the worries around Brexit are escalating again, since UK PM Theresa May is rumored to try to dismiss Boris Johnson. So far, the price had been under huge pressure and we do not expect a sudden recovery to take place.
Most likely, even if the price will not advance any further, a large bottoming formation will need to build up. If the buyers manage to break above the 1h chart 20 EMA, they could open more ground towards 1.3145-1.3154 resistance.
On the other, if the EMA act as resistance and caps the upside, we expect renewed selling pressure to drive the price towards 1.3029 support, where the correction started on Friday. A break below it could expose 1.2995 support level.
The US dollar weakened against the yen as well on Friday, the sellers erasing all the daily gains with just two candles. The price action cooled down as the end of the week approached, but given the fact that the sellers managed to generate such impulsive move in a short period of time is communicating that a swift change of hands could be taking place and further downside gains might follow in the next days.
If the selling pressure will continue, the price action will move further towards 112.53 and 112.43 support levels, while a breach below the lather will open more space for sellers towards 112.22 support.
On the upside, if the buyers rebound and manage to balance the order flow, we expect the price to head towards 1h chart 20 EMA + 112.91 support. Only a strong breakout above that area could signal that the buyers resumed and Friday high will be under pressure.
The Aussie had also benefited from weak US NFP figures and rebounded higher in late Friday, erasing around two thirds of the daily losses. On the 4h chart we can see a legit bullish piercing candle that could potentially signal a further continuation towards the 4h chart 20 EMA. So far, the price had been trading below the EMA for a decent amount of time and selling pressure could reemerge there, if the price action reaches it.
Below the 20 EMA we expect the 0.7885 area to act as resistance and generate some selling pressure. A breach above the EMA would open more space for buyers towards 0.7834 or 0.7859 resistance level.
On the downside, if the selling pressure will resume, we expect buyers to try to cap the downside around 0.7743 area, which also acted as support on Friday. Below it, 0.7711 and 0.7680 follow as support.