Daily Forex forecast analysis 10-10-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 10-10-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro managed to extend higher yesterday and today, during the Asian session. It seems like the bullish influence had increased tremendously, given the price action created in the last few hours. However, we must also consider that the trading volumes had been low due to holiday in US so a reversal is not excluded. We say that because political uncertainty might resume given the fact that Catalonia parliament will hold a meeting today, were independence could be announced.
We expect the market to be cautious ahead of the event and if the independence will be requested, the price could resume the downside. 1.1762 and 1.1755 lie as our short-term support levels, but the independence news will send the price probably towards last week low.
On the upside, a breach above the 1.1779 will send the price towards the 1.1810 area. Above that point, 1.1831 will be next.
- German Trade Balance figures are due at 06:00am GMT.
- From US, there is no significant indicator due today.
The dollar-swiss consolidated higher, following Friday slump, which communicates that the buyers attempted to build up again. Looking at the long-term picture, the price action had been making higher lows and higher highs for a decent amount of time and since so far the selling pressure had not continued, the upside is still in play. However, we could see selling pressure resuming in case North Korea tensions will spark again or Catalonia does not declare independence.
If the buyers will manage to build up after the brief slump that took place in the Asia session, we expect them to continue towards 0.9804, where the upside was capped yesterday, while a breach of it will send the price towards 0.9823.
On the downside, 0.9766 will need to be broken in order to open more space for the sellers towards 0.9746 and 0.9733. We expect to see how the price will begin to trade once trading volume gets back to normal.
Cable gapped higher yesterday and continued to trade on the upside until the end of the day, breaching the 1.3145-1.3157 resistance area. So far the price action had not moved far away from that area and we suspect at least some short-term selling interest could emerge there. The Brexit negotiations will be tough most likely and we will most likely see periods of high uncertainty in the next two years.
Above our key resistance area, we have the 1.3175, which responded pretty nicely yesterday. A break above it will confirm the buying pressure resumed and will signify a continuation towards 1.3199 or 1.3221 might take place.
On the other hand, if the price breaks back below our key resistance area, that could trigger some short-term selling interest and the price will head towards 1.3127 and 1.3103. There had been a strong bearish move in play for a decent amount of time and it could resume at any time.
- From UK, Manufacturing Production figures, Industrial Production + Trade Balance are due at 08:30am GMT.
The dollar-yen had consolidated below the 4h chart 20 EMA yesterday, confirming that the buying pressure had been weak, following the Friday slump. We also have a pin bar that formed on Friday on the daily chart, which most likely got long-term sellers’ attention. If the relation towards the EMA will change and selling pressure will increase, we believe there is room for a deeper retracement.
If that will be the case, 112.53 and 112.43 are expected to act as short-term support levels, while if they will fail to cap the downside, further selling might follow towards our next support located around 112.22.
On the upside, only a break above yesterday high could open more room towards 112.91. Above that level, 113.05 and 113.18 will follow and we suspect the buyers will attempt to put pressure on last week high.
The Aussie had been ranging yesterday, with no clear directional bias, due to low liquidity. However, today, during the Asian session, there had been some bullish activity as we see the price reached the 4h chart 20 EMA. So far, there is some hesitation there, since the EMA acted as resistance for a decent amount of time and sellers might want to rejoin the bearish trend around that point.
If the selling pressure will resume impulsively and the price will break below the EMA, 0.7743 might be reached again. A break below last week low will open more space towards 0.7711 and 0.7680 levels.
On the upside, if the EMA +0.7785 area will fail as resistance and buyers will manage to overcome that obstacle, further solid gains might follow towards 0.7834 and 0.7859, where selling pressure might resume again.