Daily Forex forecast analysis 10-13-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 10-13-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro retreated lower yesterday, first, most likely due to profit taking and second, due to better than expected figures from the US, which gave the US dollar a boost. As we mentioned yesterday, there is a potential head and shoulders pattern building up and it could be seen on the daily chart. The top of the right shoulder should be located around the 1.1909 level, so there is still some upside potential.
So far, the buyers seem to be building up after reaching the 1.1830, key area and we’ve seen some buying activity during the Asian session, which communicates that further gains might follow towards the 1.1909 area.
On the other hand, if the selling pressure will resume again, 1.1830 area and the 4h chart 20 EMA could act together as a support zone and cap the downside, while below it we have the 1.1809 and 1.1787, which could spark some buying interest as well.
- CPI and HICP figures for Germany are due at 06:00 am GMT.
- From US, very important CPI + Retail Sales figures will follow at 00:30 pm GMT.
The dollar-swiss managed to rebound decently yesterday, after reaching the 0.9716 support area. The price action reached the 20 EMA and thus far we’ve seen little retracement lower, which communicates that the selling pressure is subdued, at least for the present time. Looking ahead, a breakout above the yesterday high will confirm that the buyers are willing to further push the price on the upside, while strong selling pressure emerging around the EMA will suggest that the sellers will like to continue the selling leg that started this week.
We expect the price to encounter resistance around the EMA + 0.9755, where we’ve seen activity yesterday as well, while a breach above yesterday high will open more ground towards 0.9784 and 0.9807.
On the other hand, if selling pressure resumes and drives the price action impulsively below the EMA, that will mean the sellers will be in control and they could drive the price towards 0.9733 and 0.9716, where the bulls started to push the price up yesterday.
- From Switzerland, PPI figures are due at 07:15 am GMT.
Cable had a pretty choppy performance yesterday, as we can see a slump during the European session, which was triggered by new headlines regarding the Brexit negotiations. It seems like both sides can’t manage to reach a common point on certain issues and that is beginning to raise questions among investors. Time is running out until Britain will leave the EU and there are still a lot of things to settle.
With regards to the price action development of the pair, thus far, the upside momentum was capped by the 1.3287 resistance and if a break above that level will take place, a continuation towards 1.3314 and 1.3342 will follow.
On the other hand, if the selling pressure resumes again, 1.3248 and 1.3221 could act as support, while 1.3199 will follow below them. US data is expected to have a strong impact on the price, so watch carefully those figures.
The dollar-yen had continued to move on the downside, although at not a fast pace. Even though the dollar managed to gain some ground against most majors, that was not the case in this situation and we can see a bearish parabolic structure building up as the price action unfolds. Looking ahead, the US CPI and Retail Sales figures that are due to being released later, will most likely have a strong impact on the price.
So far, the price is trading below the 1h chart 20 EMA and it could continue to do so. If that will be the case, further selling could drive the price towards 111.80 and 111.53 support areas.
On the upside, the EMA could act as resistance and if it fails, more upside gains could follow towards 112.43 and 112.53 resistance, where we’ve seen the sellers capping the upside yesterday and starting to push the price lower.
The Aussie continues to trade above the 4h chart, which shows that the buyers are managing to keep control over the order flow thus far. We’ve seen higher lows and higher highs unfolding, which communicates also that there is still upside potential. Looking ahead, we expect to see how the data from US will be. Better than expected figures could revive speculations that a new rate hike from the Fed will take place this year, which could favor the US dollar.
If that scenario will not materialize, the price could manage to overcome the 0.7834 resistance, where it is currently struggling and will continue to head towards 0.7860 and 0.7875, where some selling activity might be seen.
In case the US data will be better than expected, that will trigger dollar strength across all pairs and we should see a retracement lower towards the EMA and potentially towards the 0.7785 support area.