Daily Forex forecast analysis 10-19-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 10-19-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro-dollar formed a short-term double bottom around the 1.1725 support area and since then, it has traded on the upside, confirming that there was appetite for buying. However, the Catalan government did not provide any answer yet, with regards to the independence declaration, so traders across the globe should be cautious until we’ll have an official statement available later today.
Because of that, we believe there is room for a deeper retracement towards the 1.1775 support, where the double bottom neckline is also located and If the sellers will push the price below it, 1.1753 and 1.1735 will follow.
On the upside, if buyers will step in each time sellers manage to drive the price a little lower we should see new higher lows and higher highs that could push the price further towards 1.1817 and 1.1840 resistance.
- From US, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims are due at 00:30pm GMT.
The US dollar managed to gain significant ground against the swiss franc yesterday, managing to reach the 0.9835 weekly high. The price action stopped on a dime there and then retraced lower, due to strong resistance. During the Asian session, the price had retreated even lower, but we already see some response from the buy side and at this point in time, there seems to be a high probably that the weekly high will be breached.
At the time of writing, the price is hovering around the 0.9807 resistance level and swing point and if the buyers will manage to win the battle there, they should be able to push the price towards the 0.9835 resistance again.
If the buyers won’t be able to do that, sellers could further drive the price towards the 0.9785 support area, where the 4h chart 20 EMA is also located. Below, 0.9768 should follow, but we do not expect the price action to deviate too much from the EMA.
- From Switzerland, Imports, Exports and Trade Balance are due at 06:00 am GMT.
Cable suffered a brief dip yesterday, as the claimant court figures came below expectations, but buyers quickly resumed and drove the price on the upside, since the Earnings were better than expected. That usually also supports a rate hike and market optimism was obviously revived. As we look forward, there could be room for further gains on the upside, but risks to the downside still persist.
A few hours ago, the price action found resistance around the 1.3221 level, since we see some selling activity there. A breakout above it + the 4h chart 20 EMA should open more ground for buyers towards the 1.3246 and 1.3266 levels.
If the area around the 20 EMA will act as resistance and selling activity will be stronger, we should see the price heading towards the 1.3174 and also towards the 1.3150 area, where the buyers started to buy yesterday.
- From UK, Retail Sales figures are due at 08:30am GMT.
As we mentioned in our yesterday daily forecast, the dollar-yen was trading above the 4h chart 20 EMA and since no break below took place we expected the price action to head on the upside. That is exactly what happened, with the price being located almost 80 pips higher at the time of writing. Looking at this point, it seems like the buyers will continue to push the price higher, thus putting pressure on the weekly highs.
If that will be the case, we expect the price action to reach both 113.16 and 113.46 resistance level, the lather being the most important one, since we have the weekly high located there. A break above it could mean a continuation towards 114 area will follow.
If a retracement takes place, we expect both 112.72 and 112.49 levels to act as a support and attempt to balance the order flow. As a whole, the price action will most likely continue to be located above the 20 EMA.
The Aussie also managed to gain ground against the US dollar and the move also accelerated during the Asian session, after the Unemployment Rate was released from Australia and the figure was better than expected. The price retraced lower, following the bullish spike, but since the order flow is now located above the 1h chart 20 EMA, we should see further gains on the upside, if no breakout below takes place.
If the EMA will act as support and drive the price higher, 0.7860 resistance could be reached again, while a break above the current daily high will open more ground towards the 0.7891, where we expect stronger reactions from the sellers.
A strong breakout below the 20 EMA should be needed to confirm that the sellers regained control over the order flow and if that takes place, we should see the price heading towards 0.7822 support level.