Daily Forex forecast analysis 10-30-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 10-30-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro had been under pressure against the US dollar last week after the ECB President Mario Draghi announced that the QE program will be reduced and mentioned that the program could be extended beyond September 2018. The euro slumped by more than 200 pips and did not managed to recover too much until the end of the week. The Catalan central government had also been dissolved, which adds to the already bearish euro sentiment.
The head and shoulders pattern had been confirmed once the 1.1660-1.1669 neckline area had been breached last week. We expect any bullish move to be capped by that area and even if a break above it takes place, the upside should be limited.
As long as the euro will continue to be under pressure, 1.1585, where the price found short-term support in late Friday could be tested again and if a breakout takes place, further bearish gains will follow towards the 1.1486 support.
- Retail Sales figures from Germany will be out at 07:00 am and Industrial Confidence + Business Climate + Consumer Confidence + Services Sentiment for the EU will follow at 10:00 am.
- From US, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures figures and Personal Income are due at 00:30 pm GMT.
The US dollar retreated on Friday against the swiss franc, even though the US GDP figure came out at 3.0%, exceeding analysts’ expectations. Looking at the long-term picture, the upside is still favored, but caution is advised again, since we have a pin bar that formed on the daily chart. If the selling pressure will continue lower, we should see the bullish trend weakening, while if the bulls will drive the price towards Friday high, more gains on the upside are expected.
Technically speaking, the price action ended last week below the 1h chart 20 EMA, which shows a short-term dollar weakness is in play. If the downside will continue to extend, 0.9953 and 0.9939 should act as short-term support levels.
If the price action will rebound above the 20 EMA, we should see the price heading towards 1.0018 and 1.0037, where the selling started at the end of last week.
- From Switzerland, KOF Leading Indicator is due at 08:00 am GMT.
Cable broke lower until the end of the week and all the gains that followed the release of better than expected UK GDP figures were erased. Even though the prospects of a BOE Rate hike this week are high, the market seems to price in the fact that another increase won’t follow too soon. We can see a mild rebound higher in late Friday, but as a whole, since we have new lower lows that communicates that the sellers are still in control.
The price closed last week little above the 1.3102-1.3121 support and if the bulls will continue to push the price higher, than 1.3155 and 1.3183, located above the EMA should act as short-term resistance levels.
If the selling pressure will resume and drive the price below our support area, than there could be more selling potential towards the 1.3050 support level.
- From UK, Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals and Money Supply figures are due at 08:30 am GMT.
We’ve mentioned several times in our daily forex forecasts, the 114.34 key resistance level, which had managed to cap the upside for several month. On Friday that level had been reached and even though the dollar should have been supported by strong GDP data, the selling was impulsive enough to push the price lower, thus confirming the interest to sell had been high around our resistance level.
The price ended the week below the 4h chart 20 EMA and if the selling pressure will continue, we expect the 113.44-113.23 support area to be reached. A break below it should mean a continuation towards 112.90 is next.
On the upside, buyers will need to drive the price again above the 20 EMA, to show that they can still drive the order flow. If the short-term resistance around the 113.89 level will fade, then further gains towards 114.08 and 114.34 should follow then.
- From Japan, a few employment figures are due at 11:30 pm GMT,
Aussie also managed to rebound a bit on Friday, but ended the week below the 4h chart 20 EMA. Even though the bulls managed to push the price higher by around 50 pips from the lows, the long-term picture is still in favor of the sellers and we expect them to rejoin the trend after a significant bull move. As long as the price action will continue to be located below the EMA, there should be additional selling pressure.
If the move that started on Friday will extend further, we expect it to find resistance around the 0.7689 and the EMA. 0.7711 and 0.7734 are other two important levels to take into account, since sellers could watch them.
On the downside, if the selling pressure will resume, then 0.7639 support and 0.7609 could be reached. 0.7572 will stand as the next target below those levels.