Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-01-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-01-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro continued to consolidate yesterday, but as expected the price action had been capped by the 1.1660 key support level. As you can see from the chart, the buyers could barely push the price 2 or 3 pips above the level before the selling resumed. We expect further selling to drive the price towards the last week low and the Fed rate statement due today could be a good catalyzer.
Looking at the 30 min chart, we are at the present time below the 20 EMA and so far the bulls power had been limited. 1.1624 and 1.1602 could be short-term support areas before the 1.1574 level, where the downside had been capped last week.
On the upside, the bulls should not manage to break above the 1.1660-1.1669 resistance area, where strong offers might be parked. Only a strong break above that are could revive further bullish momentum towards the 1.1694 resistance level.
- From US, the key event of the day is represented by the Fed Rate Statement, which is due at 06:00 pm GMT.
The dollar-swiss found support around the 0.9939 level and since then it has been trading upwards, now located above the 1h chart 20 EMA. Looking ahead, the market expects positive news from the Fed today and if a rate hike in December will be mentioned + optimism that the monetary policy will normalize at a faster pace, the dollar should gain more ground and put pressure on last week high.
At the time of writing, it seems like the bulls are building up towards the 0.9994 resistance and since the selling pressure is limited so far, we could see a breakout higher and a continuation towards 1.0018 and 1.0038, last week high.
On the downside, we should see a strong selling wave which must break below the EMA in order to have a clue that further downside pressure will follow. 0.9965 and 0.9939, current weekly low should act as short-term support levels.
- From Switzerland, SVME – Purchasing Managers’ Index is due at 08:30 am GMT.
Cable continued to trend higher yesterday, at a very fast pace and so far it has managed to reach the 1.3278-1.3293 resistance area. The market is pricing is a BOE rate hike tomorrow, but keep in mind that first we have the Fed rate decision, so the US dollar should be in the spotlight first. Around the area were the price is now located we have seen selling interest in the past, so a retracement lower before the BOE decisions tomorrow is not excluded.
If that will be the case and sellers will begin to gain momentum again, then a corrective move towards the 1.3225 support level should follow. Below it, we have the 1.3183 and the 4h chart 20 EMA, which we expect to act as a support zone.
On the upside, the bulls might be capped by sellers who could enter the market around the area we’ve mentioned at the beginning. Above that, we have the 1.3338 level, which is also expected to generate significant selling pressure, so the upside should be limited today.
Even though the US dollar had a poor performance at the start of this week and a breach below the 113.24-113.34 support area had taken place, the bulls managed to build up strongly and now the price action is headed north impulsively. All the weekly losses had been covered until the time of writing and because of that, we expect more upside gains to follow until the end of the week. The technical picture points towards that and if the fundamental will support it, then the move will truly materialize.
Currently, the price is heading towards the 114.00 resistance level and if the bullish pressure will push the price higher, 114.23 and 114.36, key resistance area, will be next and will be very interesting to see how the price action will unfold there.
On the downside, 113.76 and the 1h chart 20 EMA should successfully cap the downside. Only a strong break below the EMA could revive further sellers and potentially drive the price towards the 113.30 support area.
The aussie resumed the downside after reaching the 4h chart 20 EMA and 0.7695 resistance level. Looking at the long-term picture, the dollar is still the one favored and the current consolidation structure does not communicate the bearish trend is over, from the contrary, there should be more downside gains in the near future, since the fundamental and technical picture support that view.
Since the have the price located below the EMA, any moves higher should be capped by it or 0.7677 support level. Close to that, 0.7695 follows and we should see the upside capped again, if the price action gets to that point.
On the downside, 0.7639 and 0.7609 should follow as support, if the selling pressure resumes and a break below last week low takes place. 0.7572 could be a potential target below those levels.