Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-02-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-02-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro was under pressure yesterday and the Fed delivered. Taking into account the Rate Statement, it seems like the Fed will most likely hike rates in December. However, the US dollar had been under pressure since the market expected a vote of the US Senate on a series of measures that will provide some further steps towards Donald Trumps’ campaign promises. Also, there had been rumors of a nomination as Fed chairman of Jay Powell, which could keep policy in line with current chair Janet Yellen.
Technically speaking, the price action is now located little below the 1.1660-1.1669 key resistance area, but it is worth to mention that yesterday high had been briefly breached. A continuation higher could expose the 1.1694 and 1.1724.
On the other hand, if the key resistance will manage to cap the upside, then renewed selling pressure could drive the price towards the 1.1624 and 1.1602 support.
- Unemployment figures from Germany will be published at 08:55 am, followed by Markit Manufacturing PMI for the EU at 09:00 am.
- From US, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims + Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs are due at 00:30 pm GMT.
The dollar swiss was heading into the last week high yesterday and almost got there until the end of the day. But today, during the Asian session, the price action has reversed amid dollar weakness and for now we suspect a double top formation might be developing. If the bullish momentum will not pick up again, then we believe there is room for more downside gains in the short-term horizon.
Currently, the price action is located below the 1h chart 20 EMA and if the sellers will manage to keep it there, a continuation towards the 0.9965 and 0.9939, where the neckline is also located, is not excluded. A breakout of the neckline will confirm the pattern.
On the other hand, buyers should manage to drive the price action above the 20 EMA in order to confirm they have resumed. 1.0018 and 1.0038, last week high, are expect expected to act as a resistance levels.
- From Switzerland, Real Retail Sales are due at 08:15 am GMT.
Cable had been hovering around the 1.3278-1.3293 resistance area for the last 24 hours and so far we have no directional bias. Choppy trading could continue until the BOE rate decision and press conference, where some additional information should be provided. If positive for the GBP, then further gains might follow, while if the BOE will disappoint, then the downside pressure will resume again.
As for now, the resistance area mentioned at the beginning should cap the upside short-term, while a breach above it will send the price towards the yesterday high and 1.3227. A continuation above that level, will mean more gains could follow towards the 1.3391.
On the downside, if the BOE will disappoint, renewed selling pressure will drive the price action towards the 1.3225, where the 4h chart 20 EMA is also located. 1.3183 and 1.3155 should follow below it.
- BOE rate decision is due at 00:00 pm GMT, followed by the press conference at 00:30 pm GMT.
Dollar-yen did not managed to continue higher as well, as the US news were disappointing. It seems like the market is now realizing Donald Trump will face rough opposition in order to implement his agenda. If the selling pressure will continue to push the price lower, the weekly gains could be erased. For now, it seems like the price action is rebounding higher, but we’ll see how much that will last.
If the bullish pressure will continue to push the price higher, then 114.01 and the 1h chart 20 EMA will follow as resistance. Above those points, 114.23 and 114.35 could also manage to cap the upside.
On the downside, we can see that the price managed to find short-term support around the 113.76 level and if that will fade then further selling might drive the price action towards the 113.58 or 113.34 support area.
The Aussie had also managed to gain significant ground against the US dollar and now we have the price action located well above the 4h chart 20 EMA. From a technical point of view, that communicates the buyers are heavily in control in the short-term and we could see further upside gains, if they will manage to hold the price above the EMA. Only a break below it could communicated selling pressure resumed impulsively.
So far, the upside had been capped by the 0.7718 resistance level and if a corrective structure will start to build up, then we could see the price heading towards the 0.7699 or 0.7677, where the 20 EMA is also located.
On the upside, if the bullish pressure resumes, then 0.7718 resistance could pose some problems to the buyers. If they will manage to break above it, we expect more upside gains towards the 0.7732 and 0.7742 levels.