Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-03-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-03-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro had been hovering around the 1.1660-1.1669 key resistance area for the last 24 hours, mentioning that the price managed to make a new daily high. So far, the selling pressure did not resumed impulsively and the bulls seem to consolidate again. We believe the market will await the NFP and unemployment data from the US, which is due later today and only if the number will turn out to be positive, then we could see more dollar gains.
If that will be the case, then selling pressure will resume impulsively and drive the price below well below our key resistance area. 1.1623 and 1.1602 are two of the main support levels you should follow.
On the upside, weaker job growth should add extra pressure on the US dollar and we could see the price breaking above yesterday high and reaching both 1.1694 and 1.1724 resistance levels.
- From US, NFP, Unemployment rate and Average Earnings figures will be published at 00:30 pm GMT.
The US dollar spiked lower against the swiss franc, as the Republican Party published a series of fiscal laws which could boost the US economy in the next few years. However, investors are still cautious about it, since passing it will be tough. Also, President Donald Trump confirmed that his pick for the Fed will be Jerome Powell, a candidate that has the same view on the monetary policy as Janet Yellen, which also was a bad news for the US dollar.
Even though the price action rebounded after the bearish spike, we assume that the sellers might attempt a new retest of 0.9965 and then the low point of the spike. Below, we have both the 0.9939 and 0.9915 support.
Bulls should manage to drive the price action above the 1h chart 20 EMA, in order to confirm they will try to push the price towards the weekly highs. 1.0018 and 1.0038 should be under pressure, if US employment figures will exceed market expectations.
Sterling tumbled yesterday after the BOE interest rate decision and press conference. The market expectations were met and we have since an increase of 25 basis points. However, the institutions seems reluctant to further increase the benchmark, since the Brexit could have a negative impact on the economy. The price action is now 200 pips lower and we can see a consolidation higher for the last 12 hours.
Today the market attention will shift towards the US employment data, which is expected to spike higher, after a bad performance last month. If that won’t happen, sterling will be favored and we could see the price heading towards 1.3120 or 1.3174 resistance levels.
On the other hand, positive figures from US will mean the bearish leg could extend further towards the 1.3025 support area. A break below it should open more ground towards the 1.2977 support level.
- From UK, we have the Markit Services PMI due at 09:30 am GMT.
Dollar-yen had also spiked lower, following the news regarding Powell’s nomination as the Fed chairman. Again, the bulls managed to cover all the losses in two hours and since that we can see the price retreating lower. So far, the activity is not intense and we expect volatility to remain subdued until the release of the key data from the US. We expect the price action to move south if the numbers will disappoint.
At the present time, the price action is located little below the 1h chart 20 EMA and if it will continue to move lower we should see it reaching the 113.76, short-term support level, where we have seen some reactions in the past as well. Breaking below yesterday low, will mean further selling will drive the price action towards the 113.35 support area.
On the upside, a break above the 20 EMA could revive the bullish momentum and we could see the price heading towards the 114.25 and 114.35 resistance, the lather being the level that capped the upside last week.
The Aussie found strong resistance around the 0.7718 area and since then it retreated lower, being located below the 4h chart 20 EMA at the time of writing. Looking ahead, the price action had been making higher lows and higher highs since the start of the week, so bulls could resume at any time and they could also be motivated by weak employment figures from US. If the data will turn out to be better than expected, than the current bearish leg could extend further.
The price is located around the 0.7677 support and swing point and if it will manage to break below it, then 0.7660 and 0.7639 levels should follow. A breakout below current weekly lows should take place only if the US dollar will be favored by strong employment data.
On the other hand, if the US dollar will be again under pressure, the price action could move again above the 20 EMA and head towards the 0.7699 and 0.7718, where we have seen selling pressure emerging yesterday.